Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Before Spring Training Mike Minor had trouble getting ready. On 12/31/13 he surgery on his urethra and subsequently was a few weeks behind his normal training regimen because he had to rest for the month of January. Then he aggravated his shoulder by pushing to make up for his late start to spring training. Specifically this resulted in him having shoulder inflammation and he missed the first month of the season. On September 23, 2014 he was shut down for the rest of the season with an inflamed shoulder.

He struggled for the first three months of the season, but after a strong August (3.24 ERA and 1.02 WHIP) I believed he was back to the pitcher he was in 2013. However, he had an awful September and was shut down.

On the whole, it was a terrible season for Minor especially when you compare his numbers to 2013. Throughout most of the season he didn’t have good command of his secondary pitches, specifically, the changeup and slider. In 2013 he was very good at keeping them down in the zone, but so often last year he left them up, in the middle of the zone. That’s why he threw the fastball much more than the previous year.

Last year he started to throw a two-seam fastball and his ground ball rate increased five and half percentage points. It’s possible he’ll throw it less if he has better command of his secondary pitches, but I think this trend will continue.

With an injury offseason I’m expecting Minor to bounce back to the numbers he put up in 2013. The ERA will probably be in the 3.30-3.40 range, but he’s generating more ground balls with the two-seamer and I expect the command of the secondary pitches to improve because he’ll have a full amount of time to prepare for Spring Training.

My 2015 projection for Minor is 200 IP, 180 Ks, 12 wins, 3.35 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

On April 26, 2013 I said, “Garrett Richards has really good stuff; his fastball and cutter sat at 95 mph and maxed out at 97 mph. Richards is a reliever masquerading as starter. His biggest problem is the lack of command of his secondary pitches, which is primarily the slider. Without command of the slider there’s no velocity separation in the cutter and fastball, which makes those pitches easier to hit. Speaking of the fastball, if he misses up in the zone it becomes flat and more hittable.”

Three things happened last year. First the command of slider improved. Second, he threw his fastball a lot more. Third, overall he was more consistent with the command and showed a better feel for pitching.

In 2013 he split his time between the bullpen and in the rotation. Starting in late July he was in the rotation for the rest of the season. Below is a breakdown of his last 13 starts in 2013 compared to the 26 starts in 2014. *Unless otherwise noted all the tables referenced will be using this date range.

Three major statistics stand out: the BABIP, HR/FB and strike out rate. Richards has great stuff but the HR/FB rate should regress and so should the BABIP. Since he misses so many bats and generates weak contact the BABIP will likely be in the .285-.295 range. A major reason why the strikeout rate ticked up was the command of the slider improved (table below).

In regards to the fastball, the velocity improved almost two mph more (image below from BrooksBaseball.net)

Last year he suffered a freak accident trying to cover first base in late August. According to Jeff Fletcher (as of December 30^th) Richards will not be ready for Opening Day, but will be ready by mid-May.

Overall, he improved dramatically last year and those improvements should repeat itself in 2015. That said, there is going to be some regression in the HR/FB rate and the BABIP. If he doesn’t pitch until mid-May he’ll probably lose somewhere between 7-10 starts.

My 2015 projection for Richards is 160 IP, 3.15 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 154 Ks and 10 wins.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

In 2013 I loved Matt Harvey. I thought he was being criminally under drafted. He had great stuff and was extremely productive in ten starts in the season prior. It’s no surprise I bought low on Harvey in all of my drafts and I rode him to a couple of fantasy titles. All that said I’m probably not going to have Harvey on any of my teams. There are several reasons why I’m staying away:

1. The Mets offense and bullpen will be bad and he won’t have a lot of wins.
2. How many innings will he throw?
3. I do not know how the new changes to the Mets ballpark will effect scoring, but it most likely will not help pitchers.

The biggest reason why I’m staying away is command is the last thing to return post Tommy John Surgery. Adam Wainwright had a TJ in 2011 and he returned in 2012 and had 32 starts. The first 16 starts were far worse than the last 16 (table below). The primary reason was his command was loose and became tighter as the season progressed.

Since the rehab process has improved since Wainwright had his surgery it’s possible Harvey comes out of the gate full bore with his stuff and command in-tact, but as of early January there are too many questions surrounding him that he’s not worth the risk (based on where he’ll likely go in drafts). If he slips into the 50s-60s among starting pitchers I’ll gladly take a flier on Harvey, but I think he’ll drafted as a top 30 pitcher, which is too high of a price for me.

For 2015 I’m projecting Harvey to have 170 IP, 3.41 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 175 Ks and 9 wins.