Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

After being relatively healthy his Major League career Gio Gonzalez had his first trip on the DL in 2014 with shoulder inflammation. Before going on the DL his numbers suffered (table below). It’s possible the bad numbers were caused by the injury, bad luck and/or a small sample size. Either way, after he came off the DL he was a much different pitcher.

The biggest question about Gonzalez’s fantasy value is whether or not you believe the 8.3% walk rate he posted after coming off the DL. Before 2014 his career walk rate was 10.5% and from 2011-13 his walk rate was 9.7%. I never like high walk pitchers because they’re more prone to blow up innings (and starts) and they leave games earlier, which lowers their win potential. Since 2011 35% of his starts have ended with an ERA above four (i.e. the in-game ERA for that specific start was above four). That’s incredibly high number for a pitcher who misses that many bats.

The primary reason why I don’t believe in the lower walk rate was his fastball command didn’t improve. After coming off the DL the strike percentage of his fastball was 64.7% and from 2011-14 (before going on the DL) his strike percentage was 64.2%.

I have the same advice as last year for any Gonzalez owner. If you have him you have to keep him in your lineup no matter what. Since he’s a high walk pitcher he’s going to be prone to random blow up starts. The blow up starts will be unpredictable, but do not waiver. When he’s clicking he can be one of top 15 pitchers in baseball.

In regards to his win potential there’s a reason why he’s only won 21 games the past two seasons. That reason is his he only six innings per start (which is primarily due to his high pitch counts due to the high number of walks). The Nationals should be able to walk away with the NL East, which is why I projected Stephen Strausberg and Jordan Zimmerman for 14-15 wins. However, I can’t go more than 12 for Gonzalez because his ability to win games will be bullpen dependent.

My 2015 projection for Gonzalez is 190 IP, 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 190 Ks and 12 wins.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Despite two years in a row of sub-3.20 ERAs and his high prospect ranking I’m still not buying Julio Teheran. I have a hard time trusting pitchers who are fly ball pitchers and have had good luck on their side. By good luck I mean he’s had below average BABIPS, HR/FB rates and LOB%’s in the last two seasons, which has led to his ERAs to be far above his respective FIPs and xFIPs.

Mark Bowman at MLB.com wrote how the slider emerged in 2014, but the stats don’t support it (table below).

The fact he’s a low walk and fly ball pitcher works really well for his home ballpark so I shouldn’t have a bias about Teheran’s ability to continue to repeat the numbers he put up the past two seasons. The most recent case of a pitcher with a similar profile as Teheran is Jeremy Hellickson. Hellickson, is a fly ball pitcher, had extremely good BABIPs, HR/FB rates and LOB%s from 2011-12. He defied the odds by consistently putting up ERAs below his FIP and xFIP. However, in 2013 his good luck ran out.

Teheran is a better pitcher than Hellickson. First and most importantly, Teheran misses way more bats because his stuff is much better. However, they still both rely on generating weak contact in order to get outs and for me, that’s not a profile I want to pay top dollar for.

It’s important how the offense was inept last year and how it’s going to continue next year. In eight losses of his losses last season, the Braves scored a total of nine runs and were shutout three times. As of late December I have serious questions of the Braves offense will score runs. Last year they were 27^th in the majors in wOBA and 29^th in runs scored. Now they lost Justin Upton and Tommy LaStella and replaced them with Nick Markakis and Alberto Callaspo. At the very least I don’t think the offense is going to be even better so it’s possible Teheran will struggle to earn wins.

My 2015 projection for Teheran is 210 IP, 3.40 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 170 Ks and 12 wins.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Based on Jon Lester’s 2014 numbers, the team he plays for and the contract that team gave him he is going to be one of the most over drafted players next year in drafts. Before the 2014 season began I was not buying Lester as a real life ace because his track record looked more like a number two starter (you can ask Jake Devereaux from Baseball Professor about the lively email debate about this at the start of the 2014 season).

Lester gets a lot of praise for how good his cutter is, but looking at the statistics (table below) the performance of the cutter was good last year, but it was “worse” compared to previous seasons.

Last year his strikeout rate was the highest it’s ever been since 2010 and the reason for this was due to the larger incorporation of the curveball. The image below (from BrooksBaseball.net) shows his swing and miss rate on the curveball since 2007.

The curveball was exceptional last year. Among qualified starting pitchers his curveball had the third highest swing and miss rate (behind Matt Garza and Corey Kluber). It’s no wonder he started throwing the curveball more last year.

Judging by how much he tightened up his release point (image below from BrooksBaseball.net) with his other pitches its no wonder why hitters were having difficulty picking up the curveball out of the hand and swinging and missing more than ever.

The big question is, is this change sustainable? Last year his HR/FB rate was 7.2%, which was the second lowest of his career. You may be thinking his time in Oakland suppressed that number, but in fact he had a 6.5% HR/FB rate with the Red Sox before being traded to Oakland so he actually got lucky last year. It’s possible the reemergence of the curveball caused the lower HR/FB rate, but I think there is going to be some regression next year.

In regards to his wins potential I have questions about their infield and outfield defense. The defense was below average last year and I don’t see any reason for a dramatic improvement in 2015. I have questions about the Cubs bullpen’s ability to hold leads (especially if Pedro Strop is given high leverage innings again).

My projection for 2015 is 210 IP, 200 Ks, 3.15 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 13 wins.