Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Before you think about Johnny Cueto in your top 10 do not forget about the three separate times he went on the DL for the same injury in 2013. After coming off the DL for the last time he changed his delivery and used the same new delivery in 2014 and was healthy the entire season. Even though he may have a higher injury risk than other pitchers he’s still one of the best pitchers when healthy.

Since 2011 he has a 2.48 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP, 20.8% strikeout rate, .264 BABIP, 8.6% HR/FB rate and 79.6% LOB%. Last year he was extremely lucky with the BABIP and LOB% (.238 and 82.5% respectively) so regression should occur. Also, what’s troubling was his ground ball rate was the lowest its been since 2010. The reason why the ground ball rate has decreased is because he’s not throwing the slider nearly as much and has opted to throw a cutter (image below from BrooksBaseball.net).

The usage of the cutter is likely to remain consistent which means I do not expect the ground ball rate to increase back to pre-2013 levels. The positive side of using the cutter more is it misses a lot of bats. In the last two seasons the cutter has a 24% strikeout rate.

Overall, I expect Cueto’s 2014 numbers to regress, but not as much as you might think. I still believe he’ll have a sub-3.00 ERA with the same strikeout rate. I’m projecting him to make 25 starts because of the injury risk. Its important to note that when you calculate your rankings and/or dollar values for each player that you add 5-7 additional starts to your estimated statistics from a replacement level pitcher that’s likely to be available in your league format. If you play in a shallow format Cueto’s value gets an uptick because there is going to be a big pool of streamable pitchers available on the waiver wire.

My 2015 projection for Cueto is 160 IP, 2.80 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 163 Ks and 10 wins.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

In 2013, at the start of spring training, Zack Greinke was diagnosed with elbow inflammation and at the time of the diagnosis was seen a minor injury. That proved to be true as he was able to begin the year on the opening day roster. Other than Carlos Quentin breaking his collar bone Greinke had a healthy 2013 season.

In 2014 Greinke missed time at the beginning of the year with a calf strain but that occurred in mid-March when the Dodgers played the Diamondbacks in Austrailia. In mid-August Greinke was dealing with elbow soreness and at the time, it was believed he could miss a couple of starts because it. It turns out nothing happened and he was able to continue pitching.

Last year was highest strikeout rate since 2011. In last year’s fantasy guide I said the reason for the lowered strikeout rate in 2012-13 was due to the decreased usage of the slider. I thought he wasn’t throwing the slider because his elbow was hurting, but in fact it was the other way around. He started throwing the slider less to protect his elbow.

Last year the usage of the slider ticked back up to pre-2012 levels and the strikeout rate increased. However, the strikeout rate did not increase because of the slider. In fact the strikeout rate of the slider was below average compared to previously in his career (image below).

The reason why the strikeout rate was so high was he started throwing the changeup much more. He started throwing it more often coming off the DL in 2013 but last year he threw it more than 15% of the time and it’s a true bat miser.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence he started throwing the slider more in 2014 and he started having elbow problems. Technically he has not missed any time to this point but he has dealt with elbow issues the past two seasons. The severity of these issues is unknown, but I believe it should be factored into his projection for next season.

My projection for next season is a 190 IP, 2.99 ERA, 1.10 WHIP with 186 Ks.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

After getting a chance to see Jeff Samardzija pitch every fifth day with the A’s there’s no doubt he’s a really good pitcher with just as good stuff; the fastball sits 94-95 and a splitter and slider that true bat missers against lefties and righties. My question about his game is why does he give up so many home runs? And the home runs he’s giving up are to are to fringe Major Leaguers and minor leaguers; players like that shouldn’t be squaring him up, but they do.

Below are the hitters who hit home runs against Samardzija as a member of the Oakland A’s:

• Jake Smolinski
• Robinson Chirinos
• Jon Singleton
• Chris Carter (3)
• Eric Campbell
• Lucas Duda
• Evan Longoria
• Marwin Gonzalez
• Jonathan Schoop
• Manny Machado
• Logan Morrison

What’s odd about his high HR/FB rate is he fits a profile that shouldn’t allow home runs as he generates a lot of ground balls, doesn’t walk a lot of batters and racks up a lot of strikeouts. However, he still allows 11-12% of his fly balls to turn into home runs.

After watching him I think it’s due to inconsistent command. I think that’s going to always be part of his game (at least I don’t see it changing in 2015) and it’s going to hinder his ability to be a dominant fantasy pitcher. Now that he’s moving to U.S. Cellular Field I don’t see the home run issues suddenly going away. In fact it’s more likely to get worse.

He’s trending positively in terms of the ground ball and walk rates, which is encouraging. Even though, the strikeout has decreased year over year, it hasn’t decreased that much and since there were other improvements in the two aforementioned rates I don’t see the drop in strikeout rate as a concern.

Like I mentioned with Chris Sale, I still have huge concerns about the White Sox bullpen. The signing of David Robertson solidifies the closer position, but who are the relievers who are going to shut down the seventh and eighth innings? Therefore, I can only project 11-13 wins.

I’m projecting 210 IP with a 3.40 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 13 Wins and 200 Ks.