Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

I was a big believer in Josh Reddick at the start of the season because he was finally healthy (he was hurt most of 2013 with a wrist sprain) and was a year removed from hitting 32 home runs. However, that didn’t happen as he had an extremely brutal start to the season.

Then in early June he was placed on the DL with a hyper extended knee. He came off the DL after 23 days and proceeded to play in a couple games before being placed on the DL again for the knee. He would go on to miss another 23 days. Once he was fully healthy he started to hit and looked like the player in 2012. The table below shows his first half and second half splits for 2014.

The biggest number that stands out was how much the strikeout rate decreased and how many more fly balls he was hitting. Also, what’s not shown is how much more contact he was making. Since we’re dealing two equally small sample sizes it’s easy to create multiple narratives. I’m a bigger believer in the second half data than the first because a change in approach at the plate must have occurred for the strikeout rate to be cut in half. Maybe he doesn’t hit .299 again, but if he’s making a lot of contact he’s going to have a .260-plus batting average.

In regards to his power numbers, I no longer believe he has the raw power to be a 30-plus home run hitter because in 2012 the average home run distance of his home runs were 376.2 feet and the average for his career is 379.6 feet, which is in the bottom 10% of home run distances. That said, if he’s going to hit fly balls more than 50% of the time he can walk to 20-25 home runs with a 9-10% HR/FB rate.

Since he missed nearly two months of the season with a hyperextended knee that could be the reason why he only stole one base last year, but why did he only have one stolen base before the injury? I can’t point to the low OBP because even in 2013 when he had a .307 OBP he had nine stolen bases. If he can steal 8-plus bases he could be a fifth outfielder in a 10-team mixed league. If he only has 1-3 stolen bases he’s only a deep mixed league option.

I project 500 ABs with a .265 batting average, 20 HRs, 7 SBs with 80/80 runs and RBI.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Carl Crawford’s 2014 seasons’ numbers are a little misleading as an incredible September heavily inflated those numbers (table below).

When see numbers like that I’m more inclined to believe the larger sample size before the one fluky breakout month. You’ll notice the ground ball rate dropped almost eight percentage points, which indicates he may been making harder contact – maybe because he was finally healthy?

At the end of May he went on the DL with a sprained left ankle; he missed 41 games. In the last four seasons he’s only averaged 96 games played. Even if he’s healthy, which is a big if, he’s going to be platooned against left handed pitching. Last year he was platooned with Scott Van Slyke; the Dodgers also acquired Chris Heisey from the Reds who will also be another platoon candidate. Moving forward Crawford will probably start receiving the Coco Crisp treatment in that he’ll play 90-110 games but there will be a lot of days off in order to keep him healthy.

Overall, I think the batting average regresses to the .280-.289 range and the home runs stay in the 7-10 range. The big wild card is the stolen bases. To his credit he stole roughly the same number of bases before and after the injury (9 and 14 respectively) so it’s reasonable to expect 15 as a floor with room for 25-30. For me Crawford doesn’t provide the upside to warrant taking him in drafts because the likelihood of injury is high I don’t see him performing at the level he did with the Tampa Rays.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Based on the scouting reports I’ve read (here, here and here) Stephen Souza is going to be this year’s Kole Calhoun. First, they both dominated the minors when they were young for the level. Second, they were middling prospects before making it to the majors. It’s important to note that Souza didn’t even make Baseball America’s or Baseball Prospectus’ Top 10 lists for the Nationals before the 2014 season began. Third, the scouting reports are mixed on what he’ll do in the majors. I think the fact the Rays got him also enhances his perceived fantasy value because there’s still this narrative in the fantasy community that if the Rays did then it’s super smart. Of course, forget the fact they haven’t produced any quality Major Leaguers from any of their drafts since 2008.

Obviously the Rays must have liked Souza a lot if they were willing to trade Wil Myers for him. It’s also important the Rays organization has had more looks at Souza than the aforementioned the authors of the aforementioned scouting reports. His numbers in Triple-A last year were really good, but he was able to put up those numbers with a .398 BABIP. If a player in the majors had a .398 BABIP we would all be saying major regression is coming. I think he could be a 15/15 player but I don’t think the batting average is going to be really high (he still plays in an extreme pitcher’s park).

Some fantasy owners are already saying he’s a 20/20 candidate, which is crazy to me. Last year there were only five players who had 20/20 seasons … seriously, only five! For someone to expect a career “old” (he turns 26 at the end of April) minor leaguer to come to majors and put up those types of numbers is crazy to me.

His hype is also going to be fueled by the simple fact he has not failed yet in the majors. Last year every one loved Brad Miller (I also could have said Chris Owings) so much they were taking him over stable and unspectacular players like Neil Walker and Erik Aybar. Now no one is going to want to draft Miller because of how much he sucked last year. Sure, it’s possible he could put up a 20/20 season, but for me, if a player has that potential he would have made it to the majors three, four years ago.