Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

For the past three years I’ve been saying David Ortiz is going to eventually decline and even if he doesn’t decline there is no upside and a lot of downside. Obviously I’ve been way wrong, but after a down 2014 I’m jumping on the positive regression bandwagon for Ortiz for 2015.

Last year he had the lowest batting average and BABIP of his Red Sox career (.263 and .256 respectively). Other than age concerns the first thought I had was he lost a lot of hits due to the shift. The table below shows his batting average on balls hit to the right, left and center part of the field since 2008. (These numbers exclude strikeouts, which is why the batting averages are higher than usual).

The numbers tell us that balls hit up the middle is the reason why his batting average was so low last year. It’s possible the shift contributed to the low batting average but if that’s true then why did he have an all-time high in batting average on balls hit to right field? I don’t know the answer, but I’m assuming the batting average positively regresses.

The 35 home runs are going to regress, but I don’t see a major regression occurring. His extra base hit percentage is almost identical to the past three seasons. I wouldn’t draft him expecting 35 home runs, but 25-30 is very reasonable.

I’m projecting 520 ABs, .290 AVG, 27 HRs, 105 RBI, 75 R and 0 SB.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

After a poor first half Yasmani Grandal had a much improved second half, hitting nearly 30 points higher and belting eight home runs in 177 ABs. The table below provides a break down of his 2014 splits.

The biggest stats that stand out are the increased BABIP and HR/FB rate. The HR/FB rates are not much different because if you remove one home run from the second half the HR/FB rate is 14%.

His ground ball rate decreased substantially in 2014 while the fly ball rate increased. For his career he has a .289 batting average on fly balls compared to a .251 batting average on ground balls. In the second half the ground ball rate dropped significantly. Therefore, if he continues to hit more fly balls the .237 batting average could repeat itself in 2015. He’s a better hitter against righties so he’ll likely platoon with A.J. Ellis, which will increase Grandal’s batting average potential.

With 777 PAs he has a career .291 BABIP and .245 batting average, which is his true talent level especially since he gets to leave Petco Park. Now that he’s no longer confined to Petco he should an uptick in his power. He has a 15.5% HR/FB rate on the road compared to 12.9% at home. His new ballpark adds 1-3 more home runs, which means he could be on the verge of 20 if gets a little lucky.

I’m projecting 400 ABs with a .241 AVG, 17 HRs, 1 SB, 60/60 Runs & RBI.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

After a breakout 2013 season where Wilin Rosario hit .292 with 21 home runs, fantasy owners had high hopes entering the 2014 season (including myself). Unfortunately, he struggled for the first two months of the season before ultimately finding his way.

During the first two months of the year he had a .225/.261/.395 slash line with a .240 BABIP. In the last four months of the season he had a .289/.328/.446 slash line with a .322 BABIP.

For his career he’s always been a better at home (.305/.346/.540) compared to the road (.243/.267/.422). However, those away numbers were dragged down by last season where he hit .186 with a .209 BABIP.

One of the biggest criticism’s about Rosario is he’s a free swinger and doesn’t take a walk. Some fantasy owners may believe his free swinger tendancies created his low BABIP, but that’s not the case. Just because a batter doesn’t walk doesn’t mean they can’t hit. During Ichiro’s prime he never walked and he consistently had 200 hits. Rosario dramatically improved his approach at the plate as the strike out rate decreased six percentage points while the contact rate increased two percentage points.

So far we know Rosario had:

1. An incredibly low BABIP on the road
2. After a low BABIP the months of the season he provided numbers similar to 2013
3. Hisa pproach at the plate improved

Even though he provided a higher batting average the last four months of the season he didn’t provide a lot of power. Perhaps injuries sapped his power?

In early May he was placed on the DL with a viral infection and only missed the minimum 15 days. In late August he was put on the DL with inflammation in his left wrist and again, only missed the minimum amount of time.

Any time a hitter has a wrist injury my first inclination is this bothered him all year and sapped his power. However, if that’s true then why was he only on the DL for 15 days? If it was more severe wouldn’t his DL stint been longer? As a fantasy community we may have to wait for more information to come out before we have a better idea how much this affected his power.

For his career, before the 2014 season, he had a career 20.3% HR/FB rate. That number may look high, but it wasn’t a result of Coors Field as he has a 19.7% HR/FB rate on the road. Last year he only had a 12% HR/FB rate, which indicates he should positively regress in 2015.

What happened to Rosario in 2014 was a combination of bad luck and injuries. I expect the batting average to bounce back in 2015, but I don’t see him coming close to the 28 home runs he hit in 2012 again. I would expect 18-22 with upside for more.

My projection is 420 ABs, 18 HRs, 70 RBI, 63 R and 1 SB.