Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

After the first four games of the season Oswaldo Arcia went on the DL with wrist inflammation. A big reason why I was avoiding him last year was the league started to make adjustments against and he struggled. Specifically, they started throwing far less fastballs and more breaking pitches. In 2013 he batted .176/.227/.275 with a 40.5% strikeout rate against breaking pitches (curveballs, sliders, changeups and etc). Last year those numbers improved dramatically as he hit .244/.270/.413 against these pitches. You may be asking yourself that slash line is better than overall numbers. You are correct. That means he performed miserably against fastballs (.220/.311/.485) and therefore should positively regress in 2015.

He’s still early on into his career, but he may have to be ultimately platooned against left handed pitching because he sports a .224/.266/.347 slash line in 259 PAs. Since the Twins do not have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs in 2015 hopefully they’ll allow Arcia to play every day (to get a better idea if he’s making positive adjustments against lefties). The fact he had 20 home runs in a shortened season may cause some fantasy owners to believe he could 28-plus home runs (which is based on his scouting report), but except for a random extraordinarily high HR/FB rate I don’t see it happening. In regards to the Twins home ballpark, it hasn’t had any negative effect on his power. He has a career 16.5% HR/FB rate at home and 17.4% on the road. I’m projecting to hit 23 home runs with a .259 batting average in 500 PAs.

I would bat him fourth in the lineup, but you never know with the Twins. In regards to the RBI totals it’s going to change dramatically based on where he hits in the lineup. Be sure to check back at the Fantasy Guide section with updated projections.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Michael Saunders was traded to the Blue Jays and is likely going to be on the better end of a timeshare with Kevin Pillar. Determining how effective he’ll against right handed pitching depends on how big of a sample you want to look at. The table below shows his various numbers against righties including: his career, his career on the road and his aggregated numbers from 2012-14.

In regards to the batting average I think his road numbers are more indicative of what I’m expecting him to hit next year. In fact I think he’ll add 5-10 points because of the home ballpark and the other good AL East ballparks he’ll get to hit in. I also think he’ll hit an extra 2-5 home runs too because of the ballparks.

In 2012 he was one home run away from being a 20/20 player so it’s possible he could still do it again, but I have doubts if the stolen bases can approach those stolen base totals. First, his stolen base totals and stolen base success rate have decreased significantly year-over-year the past three seasons. Second, the Blue Jays ranked 24^th in the majors in stolen base attempts last year; the counter to that is they ranked 6^th in 2013 so it’s possible the team will return to its stealing ways.

If there’s a player who could have a 2012 Josh Reddick breakout season it’s Saunders. I’m projecting a .258 batting average, 22 home runs and 11 stolen bases with 480 plate appearances.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Starling Marte has a very interesting profile because he has a very aggressive approach and subsequently strikes out a lot, but at the same time he hits for a high batting average. He’s done this for two years in a row so it’s reasonable to say this is true talent level and therefore, can be repeated. Last year I wasn’t buying Marte because I thought he BABIPed his way to a good rookie campaign, but after last year I was clearly wrong.

The biggest question I have is there room for improvement with the power? He has a career 14.2% HR/FB rate on the road compared to only 9.7% at home so it’s possible the home ballpark (which is a very pitcher friendly park) is suppressing his power. Marte turned 26 years old in October so it’s possible there’s an uptick in power, but I don’t see it happening. Maybe he has a fluky HR/FB rate, but I wouldn’t bank on it.

In terms of the stolen bases his stolen base success rate was identical the past two seasons (73.2%), which is not high enough to be successful in the long term (80% is the minimum threshold to provide a positive run expectancy over a substantial sample size). That may be why his stolen base attempts decreased so much last year. He has the pure speed to steal 40-plus, but at this point I don’t think I can reasonably expect that next year. That said, stealing bases is a skill that can be learned and improved upon pretty quickly.