Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

These fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings were pulled Friday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The data is up to date as of Thursday night. Also, player comments were written Friday morning. The original post can be found here.

Top 101 starting pitchers for week 14

Must-start pitchers
Jake Arrieta has pitched like an ace and if you followed my advice and rostered him after he made his 2014 debut you are very happy at the moment. On the surface the start at the Boston looks like it could be a scary proposition, but the Red Sox has only been average this year. For the year the Red Sox are 17th in the majors in wOBA and if you adjust for the home ballpark they’re in the bottom third of the league. If I own Arrieta (and I do) I am starting him in every format.

Stream options in 10-team & must-starts in 12-team
Lance Lynn has been really good so far this year, but eventually his ERA is going to regress. He’s striking out few batters and the hit distribution is exactly the same as the previous two years. The major differences is his BABIP is 30 points lower than his career and he has been lucky with the HR/FB rate. I like him against the Marlins, but he is someone I would try to sell high on. … In the month of June Ian Kennedy has been brutal; he has a 5.46 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. The underlying statistics (strikeout rate and walk rate) have been stable in June, but the biggest change has been the increase in fly ball rate. In June the fly ball rate is 43.5 percent and during the first two months of the season it was only 34.8 percent. I was a big believer in Kennedy a few weeks ago because he was missing a lot of bats and it appeared he made an adjustment to induce more ground balls. The Reds are 24th in the majors in wOBA for the year so I’m starting him in all formats, but the following week he pitches in Colorado and I’m finding other options especially if he continues to allow more fly balls. … Prior to his Sunday start against the Mariners where he struck out six in seven innings (June 22) Yordano Ventura, in his previous five starts stopped striking out batters (only 14 strikeouts in 29 innings). His last start was good enough that I’m confident in starting him in brutal matchup against the Indians who have the fifth best wOBA in the majors against righties.

Stream options in 12-team & must-starts in 15-team
I wasn’t buying Josh Beckett the day before and after the no-hitter and it looks like I was wrong because all the numbers suggest what he is doing is legitimate. However, if you play in weekly formats I would try to find another option. It’s also important to mention he has a career 3.82 ERA (in five starts) at Coors. … In 16 starts Jarred Cosart has given up more than three runs twice (not a misprint). If it wasn’t for the disaster seven earned run appearance in Oakland back in April he would have a 2.94 ERA. In general when I see pitchers with a nine percent walk rate and 1.31 WHIP I tend to shy away from streaming them, but he has improved in the three most important factors I look at with starting pitchers. The strikeout out rate is up, the walk rate is down and he’s generating more ground balls. He’s a must start in weekly quality start leagues and is a stream option in 12-team mixed leagues.

Stream options in 15-team
Chase Anderson may not have a lot of fantasy upside because he lacks the arsenal that makes fantasy owners go “wow” when they see him pitch, but he throws four pitches and can throw them all for strikes, which makes a very important real life player. His start against the Pirates is not ideal, but the following week he is a two start pitcher (home to the Marlins then at the Giants). If you play with quality starts he is someone worth looking in a 14-team mixed league. … Despite Chase Whitley’s success prior to Monday’s start in Toronto (June 23), I did not rank him because his profile suggested he would not do well in Toronto against that offense. Prior to his disaster start in Toronto he had a 2.56 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 2.5 percent walk rate. Those are peripherals I can stand behind especially against a mediocre offense in a cavernous ballpark.

Pitchers to start only in dire circumstances
In May I loved Brandon McCarthy because he was striking out batters at 20 percent clip and only walked 2-3 percent of batters, but in the month of June the strikeout rate is only 15.6 percent (hopefully the strikeout rate increases after his Friday start against the Padres). The start in Pittsburgh looks like a good stream option, but the Pirates have the fifth best wOBA at home in the majors. Also, with the addition of Gregory Polanco the offense is even better.

The matchups were pulled Friday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The data is up to date as of Thursday night. Also, my player comments were written Friday morning. The original post can be found here.

Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Week 13

Must Start Pitchers: In his last six starts Max Scherzer has a 6.86 ERA, 1.58 WHIP with a 21.3 percent strikeout rate and 5.1 percent walk rate. To put the strikeout rate into perspective he hasn’t had a strikeout rate that low since 2011. During this stretch he has a .382 BABIP, which on the surface suggests the bad luck will regress. However, 50 percent of the hitted balls he’s allowed have been fly balls, which is by far higher than his career norms. Scherzer’s track record speaks for itself, but I’m a little worried about him moving forward.

Stream Options in 10-Teams & Must Starts in 12-Team: Yordano Ventura has looked good in his last three starts since returning from a sore elbow. In the last three starts he has a 2.70 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. What’s most concerning is he only has eight strikeouts in 20 innings (10 percent strikeout rate). It’s only been three starts and the quality of his stuff is still the same so I don’t want to overreact, but if he’s only striking out 3-4 batters per outing he’s no longer a must play in 10 and maybe 12 team formats. … After a brutal start to the season Chris Archer has a 1.06 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 24.3 percent strikeout rate and 11.8 percent walk rate. Any time I see a walk rate and WHIP that high I know the ERA is unsustainable. I still have serious concerns about his inability to consistently get out left handed batters and his inability to earn wins, but he still has immense fantasy potential. … I love Marcus Stroman, but for the year left handed batters are hitting .348 against him. The biggest reason why is he doesn’t throw the changeup enough. Without the changeup he doesn’t have a pitch that goes away from the batter, which makes him more hittable because the batters are looking for the ball either in the middle or in on the plate. The changeup could be a work in progress, but if he is going to stay in the rotation he is going to have to utilize it more. … Even if you remove Colin McHugh’s first start where he struck out 12 in 6.3 innings he has a 3.07 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 24.3 percent strikeout rate. The ERA will increase, but not more than 3.40; he’s almost reached the level of must start status.

Stream Options in 12-Teams & Must Starts in 15-Team: When Jake Arrieta was on the verge of making his 2014 debut I was excited about his fantasy value because his raw stuff was on a level of a top 20 starting pitcher. After his debut against the Cardinals I recommended fantasy owners to pick him up off waivers. There’s no bigger proponent of Arrieta than me. In his last six starts he has a 1.72 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 29.4 percent strikeout rate and 4.9 percent walk rate. However, look at the teams he faced: Marlins twice, Phillies, Mets, Giants and Padres … not exactly the best offenses in the majors. … Andrew Heaney doesn’t have the flash of a Marcus Stroman or a Trevor Bauer, but he may have the most fantasy value for the rest of the year. Heaney doesn’t have exploding stuff, but he makes up for that with good command of three pitches that he can throw for strikes at any point in the count. Also, do not forget Heaney pitches in the worst division in baseball so he is going to have more stream opportunities.

Stream Options in 15-Team: Bartolo Colon is pitching great of late; he has a 1.53 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in his last five starts. However, when you start him you’re playing with fire. Three times this year he has had starts where he has given up six or more earned runs.

Pitchers To Start Only in Dire Circumstances: To begin the year I wasn’t buying Kyle Gibson’s early numbers because he wasn’t striking out a lot of hitters (only 13 percent) and walking too many batters (12 percent). In the last nine starts he has a 2.67 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 14.6 strikeout rate and 5.2 walk rate. The fact he cut the walk rate in half and increased the strikeout rate suggests he can be streamable. However, during this time frame he has had starts where he has given up six, five and four earned runs. Bottom line is if you start him you’re playing with fire. … When I’ve seen Justin Verlander pitch the biggest problem has been command and not the fastball velocity. Doug Thorburn at Baseball Prospectus builds upon what I’ve been seeing by going in-depth into the mechanical inconsistencies with his delivery. This is a tease from the article, “Yet despite the statistical red flags, the underlying elements of his struggles suggest that he can right the ship with minor adjustments.” He’s a buy low in every format.

The matchups were pulled Friday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The data is up to date as of Thursday night. Also, my player comments were written Friday morning.

Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Week 12

Must Start Pitchers: Dallas Keuchel will most likely not the end the season with a sub-2.40 ERA, but what he’s doing is legit; at the end of the year he’ll have a sub-3.15 ERA. This week he faces one of the worst offenses in the majors (Rays) and a NL team without the DH.

Stream Options in 10-Teams & Must Starts in 12-Team: The presumption is Kevin Gausman will be sent down to the minors when Miguel Gonzalez comes off the DL, but I would be shocked if that happens. He has the highest upside of any starting pitcher on the major league roster and if the Orioles want any shot of making the playoffs Gausman will have to be the rotation. … Trevor Bauer did not perform well in a favorable matchup start against the Royals, but he’s throwing strikes consistently. If he doesn’t perform well against the Angels it’s possible he gets bumped out of the rotation when Zach McAllister comes off the DL. … Yordano Ventura has pitched great since coming off the DL, but he’s not striking out a lot of batters. In his last six starts (34.1 innings) he only has 22 strikeouts, which isn’t enough in shallower mixed leagues. He’s still a must start this week, but if the low strikeout totals continue I would try to trade him. … Jeff Samardzija has pitched great this season and is a must start against the Marlins because he recently went seven innings and only allowed two earned runs against them in Chicago. He currently has a 2.77 ERA, but when the season ends he’ll have a 3.50-3.70 ERA, which means he’ll have an ERA around 4.20 the rest of the year. I’m selling high after his great start against the Marlins.

Stream Options in 12-Teams & Must Starts in 15-Team: Danny Duffy has a 3.49 ERA and 1.19 WHIP as a starter and he faces a Tigers lineup that is only average against lefties. For example, the Tigers are 17^th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. … In his last 11 starts Brandon McCarthy has a 4.55 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 23.3 percent strikeout rate, 4.4 walk rate, 18 percent HR/FB rate and a .358 BABIP. Eventually the luck will positively regress and I like him as individual streaming options this upcoming week. … Chase Whitley has looked good in every start this year. He strikes out enough batters, generates a lot of ground balls and most importantly only has three walks in 33.2 innings. The 2.41 ERA is going to regress, but I don’t see a huge jump coming. By the end of the year he’ll have a 3.25-3.35 ERA, which is still very good in deeper mixed leagues. He has a tough matchup against the Blue Jays but I love pitchers who do not walk guys.

Stream Options in 15-Team: I said at the very beginning of the season I wasn’t buying Jesse Chavez. In the last five starts he has a 4.13 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Even though he’s at home I have reservations about starting him against the Red Sox in a 12-team mixed league.

Pitchers To Start Only in Dire Circumstances: Justin Verlander has a 7.41 ERA and 1.78 WHIP to go along with 13.5 strikeout rate and 10 percent walk rate in his last six starts. Despite the favorable matchups this week I cannot see a scenario in any mixed format where I would want to start him. … The box score of Chris Tillman’s last start suggests he has made strides with this command, but he still left a lot of balls up in the zone and should have given up more runs only one. Even if he performs well against the Blue Jays on Sunday I would have strong reservations about starting him because he has allowed five or more runs in three of the past five starts. He has a 2.90 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and a four percent walk rate, but I’m not buying especially at the Red Sox. In five of twelve starts he has given up four earned runs or more, which means he could have a blow up start at any time.