Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

In my fantasy guide I wasn’t very high on Jose Abreu because “the scouting community is split over whether his power will translate against major league pitching. Some scouts consider his bat speed to be only average at best …” The source from the quote is from Ben Badler’s article right after Abreu signed in October.

We’re half way through spring training and talent evaluators have had an opportunity to get a better view of him and to see how he performs professional pitchers. One talent evaluator I respect very much is Keith Law and a couple of days ago he said, “I think they had good cause for such optimism.” Check out the article for the full write-up. I’m currently updating my projections and Law’s scouting report got me thinking how should I project him.

After the first 11-12 first baseman the next eight, nine are all about the same, which is the tier that contains Abreu. This tier of first basemen provide pretty safe numbers in that they will 18-23 home runs with a .260-275 batting average. If you’re team is going to do well you’re going to need to find the player that outperforms everyone in this tier.

Despite my projection for 27 home runs, Abreu is in this tier because I gave him a .240 batting average. In my rankings he’s currently right after Brandon Belt, Matt Adams and Nick Swisher. If I were drafting in a 10-team mixed draft I would take Abreu over all of them, but what about a 15-team mixed league? My initial response is to say no, but if Abreu hits 30-plus homes with a .250 batting average you basically have Mark Trumbo.

Albert Pujols and Abreu are the two first basemen who will have the biggest deviations from their draft value at the end of the year. They’ll either outperform or under perform; I do not see a lot of middle ground. The point I’m trying to make is how important it is to understand the player pool and to find the player’s you’re high and low on before your drafts so you do not have to make snap decisions in 60-90 seconds. (I gave Abreu a couple of extra home runs and he is now ahead of Adams and Swisher).

Lastly, I’m writing a daily column over at Baseball Professor where I recap the previous days fantasy news. So if you’re looking to read me more often then check them out.

It’s been awhile since I’ve posted some of my analysis because I’ve been taking it easy since I wrote my Fantasy Guide, but with the season soon upon us and our draft days nearing what better time than now to discuss what is going on in the baseball world.

Before the 2013 season I was a big proponent of Casey Janssen’s fantasy value, but I’m becoming wary for two reasons. First, Sergio Santos, when healthy, is a better pitcher and it looks as though he’s back to 100 percent. Second, Janssen has been dealing with should soreness, but according to Blue Jays manager Jon Gibbons, “it won’t be long” before Janssen is back on schedule, though he will have to throw off a mound a few times before he’s ready to pitch in a Grapefruit League game.” Depending on how Janssen responds in the coming days will effect his draft day value, but either way Santos is a top five must own non-closer reliever.

I got to see Neftalí Feliz pitch the other day and it looks as though he didn’t have the same zip on the fastball. According to various reports his fastball has only topped out at 92 mph, which could be due to him not throwing at full speed yet or due to physical/mechanical issues. In 2012 he had  a TJ surgery and it velocity, usually, is the first thing to come back, but that’s never 100 percent. It’s hard to say if Feliz will get the closer’s job or if it will go to Joakim Soria, but both pitchers are must owns. If I were drafting today I would take Soria because I’ve seen him pitch effectively in the majors last year.

It looks as though Kris Medlen is going to have a second TJ surgery. He is currently seeking a second opinion, but for owners in drafts today this is a player that should not be drafted.

With Jose Abreu lost defensively it’s becoming more likely Dee Gordon earns the second base job for the Dodgers. I have doubts Gordon will hit higher than .250 in a large sample, but if you’re looking for steals he could be a short term fix.

Justin Verlander may have pitched most of 2013 with an injury which could have caused his “poor” season. Based on this information I moved him up a spot in my rankings, but I want to see how he looks as spring training progresses.

Mike Minor has thrown a couple of bullpen sessions and could have his first start in a few days, but it’s possible he begins the year on the DL. For a background on Minor, his offseason training regimen was interrupted after having urinary tract surgery on Dec 31. During the start of spring training he experienced shoulder soreness as he ramped up his throwing program. As of now I do not believe this will have a major effect on his 2014 season. Instead of having 31-32 starts, he’ll have 28-29.

Lastly, Felipe Paulino’s stuff looked pretty good in his first start of the spring. His box score looks awful as he allowed four runs on eight hits in 1.7 innings of work. However, I do not care because, “Paulino’s fastball sat between 92 and 94 mph, and he mixed in his other three pitches — slider, curveball, changeup” according to JJ Stankevit at CSN Chicago. This is a player I’m excited about entering 2014 because this is a player who has always been able to miss bats, but has had trouble staying healthy. If he can throw 150-plus innings this is potentially a top 55 starting pitcher.