Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Hello everyone. It brings me great pleasure (and relief) that the 2014 fantasy guide is available for public consumption. What you will find is more than 440 player profiles totaling more than 150,000 words.

The goal is to help owners who want to think for themselves and who are looking for new ideas on player evaluation. For example, some fantasy writers write analysis that reads something like, “Player X struggled at the plate because he had the burden of carrying the offense, which caused him to press. However, now that the team has improved he will not press as much and he’ll become the player he once was.” As a reader what am I supposed to do that? Is the writer his psychiatrist? If so, then that statement has a lot of weight. If not, it’s pure speculation, means nothing and does not help with the evaluation of the player.

My approach to player evaluation is based on several pieces of information. I look at the data, scouting reports and other credible authors who have provided analysis or further information about the player. For example, Yoensis Cespedes had a down year in 2013. According to the scouting report from Jason Parks at Baseball Prospectus a reason why he struggled was due a poor approach at the plate. Specifically, he gears up for the fastball at all times, regardless of the count, which makes him susceptible to off-speed and breaking pitches. The table below shows his performance against off-speed and breaking pitches the past two seasons. The data in table coincides with the scouting report. Therefore, I don’t see a big improvement in batting average coming for Cespedes in 2014.  Maybe Cespedes will have a great year and I’ll be incorrect. That’s okay with me. I believe in process over performance because good process will normally win out in the end. With any game there is going to be variance that is out of your control. However, if you have a good process you’re odds of performing well increase exponentially.

This is the approach I took when writing the fantasy guide and I believe this provides more useful information and empowers the reader to make more accurate opinions on players. When someone reads my projections on a player it is my hope the reader will know why I’m down or high on a player.

I wrote the guide out of a labor of love so any feedback, even if its criticism would mean the world to me. Seriously, if you think my evaluations are no good or my methodology should be changed then please tell me. I want to be a better evaluator and the more information and ideas people tell me the better. Since I wrote this myself I’m very certain you will find typos and grammatical errors. I tried my best to catch all of them, but if you find some I apologize ahead of time.

2014 Fantasy Baseball Guide

Hitter and Pitcher Rankings with Projections & Dollar Values

The dollar values use the “standard” $260, 23 player roster (14 hitters including two catchers and nine pitchers) and the traditional 5×5 format. The budget split is 68/32 for hitting and pitching.

On February 22 Cruz signed with the Orioles for $8M with almost another million in incentives. I can’t help, but feel bad for him because A) he turned down a $14M qualifying offer from the Rangers early in the offseason because he was hoping for long term contract and B) was subjected to draft pick compensation. For fantasy purposes this is one of the better spots for Cruz to land. First, the majority of playing time will be at DH, which help stay on the field because he’s battled leg injuries for a good portion of his career. Second, Baltimore is one of the best parks for hitter’s and home runs so I don’t expect a major regression in home runs. Third, he’ll bat fifth in a lineup that should score a lot of runs, especially if you believe in Chris Davis.

Last year Cruz had a really good season despite missing 50 games due to a PED suspension. Like I said for every player linked to PEDs, I don’t care if a player took them or not. I have not found any substantial studies or data to suggest PEDs improve a player’s performance so until I learn otherwise I’ll continue to not care. Last year he had the highest HR/FB rate of his career (21.3 percent) compared to a career (before 2013) 17.5 percent rate. That data point suggests a regression is going to happen, but in 2009 he had a 21.2 percent HR/FB rate, which implies he’s capable of maintain that rate in 2014, especially in Baltimore. For 2014 I expect him to hit 25-30 home runs with room for a little more if he plays in 150-plus games.

There are some red flags with his game. First, he had the lowest batting average against left handed pitching since 2010 last year (.279 batting average) . One reason for the decline was the BABIP was also the lowest ever, but that doesn’t mean the batting average is going to regress. The table shows his performance against left handed pitching. You’ll notice not only did the ground ball rate sky rocket, but he made less hard contact.

Since 2009 he is a career .263 hitter against righties and a .296 hitter against lefties. If he can longer mash lefties, a decrease in the batting average is more likely to occur. Unlike the hit type trend against lefties, his hit type distribution has been relatively the same, which is another reason why I believe the home run totals will be the same. Last year he had the highest strikeout rate of his career with 26.3 percent. The increase in strikeout rate was primarily driven by non-fastballs, which indicates he may be cheating even more on the fastball. In terms of the stolen bases there are two narratives you could subscribe to. The first could be since he is only on a one year deal he’ll be more inclined to steal 10-plus bags to boost his value in free agency. The second is nine stolen bases is the ceiling because he has not stolen more than ten since 2010. I’m more inclined to believe in the ladder because he didn’t steal more than usual last year.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.