I created my first podcast and in this episode I talk about my catcher rankings and tiers, which can be found here. Like I said during the podcast I have no illusions the podcast will be good and/or this endeavor will be beneficial for my career.
Music from Verbow.
The songs I played are:
Download Here (21:26)
Below is my fantasy baseball preview for the relief pitcher/closer position. This is a mere supplement to the fantasy guide, which will have in-depth player capsules for each player ranked. The fantasy guide will be released on March 1. If you’re looking for player projections for the 2014 season, please go to the fantasy guides page.
If I’m playing in a shallow league (13 teams or less) I’m not drafting a high end closer and I’ll wait for a middle of the road closer. It’s possible to draft the closers you need near the end of your drafts. For example, last year I drafted (in a 12-team mixed league) Grant Balfour, Jason Grilli and Casey Janseen in the 16th and 17th rounds and I finished third in saves. In deeper leagues I want one of the closers in the first two tiers and I’ll wait and grab one tier four closer.
Tier 1
Overall, these closers will provide elite production in four categories and there’s no question the job belongs to them. I’m down on Kenly Jansen because of potential injury concerns (he had a heart problem two years ago) and with Brian Wilson waiting in the wings I wouldn’t be surprised if Jansen’s leash is the shortest among this group. Joe Nathan is the least dominate of the bunch, but he has been consistent his entire career and will play on a team that should win 90-plus games.
Tier 2
I have no doubt David Robertson is the best reliever in the Yankee bullpen, but since he doesn’t have the “experience” closing games he may have a short leash. If the potential short leash didn’t exisit he would be in the first tier. I’m not worried about the “failed” medicals for Grant Balfour because most teams were fine with them. Even though Balfour has lost some zip on the fastball he’ll still pitch in another pitcher friendly ballpark and behind another great defense. Barring injury Jim Johnson is going to be the A’s closer. In fact he’s the safest player in this tier. I believe the Giants finish fourth in the division and will therefore have less save opportunities, but at the end of the day Sergio Romo is the best option in the Giants bullpen.
Tier 3
If I’m drafting one of these players I want to make sure I roster the reliever next in line because I wouldn’t be surprised if they lose the closer role during the season. Jonathan Papelbon is a fastball heavy pitcher and last year his fastball sat in the 92 range instead of the 95 we’ve been accustomed to. He has been one of the most reliable closers ever, but I have doubts about how many games the Phillies win and how often he’ll be used (i.e. he won’t pitch in extra-inning games unless it’s a save opportunity). Fernando Rodney is probably the safest bet to keep the closer job because of the contract he signed, but the Mariners bullpen has at least two players who could take saves away. John Axford presents the highest upside because after realizing he was tipping his pitches (after he was traded to the Cardinals) his numbers got a lot better. Ernesto Frieri is prone to the home run ball, which makes him more dangerous in H2H leagues, but if the Angels improve their performance he could be a tier one closer.
Tier 4
Addison Reed lost two mph on his fastball and threw the most sliders in his major league career. With J.J. Putz waiting in the wings the hook for Reed may be fast. Jesse Crain is a great reliever, but with a one year deal I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s pitching for a different club and subsequently no longer closing at the end of July. I like Jim Henderson a lot, but the signing of Francisco Rodriguez means the Brewers are dumb enough to give Rodriguez saves in order to trade him at the trade deadline again. I’m not convinced Jason Grilli pitches the whole year, which means Mark Melancon is the most important non-closer to roster. Parnell should be in tier three, but I want to see him pitch in spring training first.
Tier 5
The LaTroy Hawkins sign doesn’t make a lot of sense, but as of early February the Rockies are saying he’ll split save opportunities with Rex Brothers. That may be the case now, but Brothers is the better reliever and it’s only a matter of time before he Brothers takes full control of the closing duties. Veras is another candidate that will likely be traded at the deadline, but unlike a Jesse Crain, he’s not a very good pitcher. Neftali Feliz is likely to be the closer, but Joakim Soria has been successful in that role before. As of early February this is a situation that should be closely monitored because whoever gets the closer role could be a tier two player. If you own Houston Street you need to roster Joaquín Benoit because Street will eventually get hurt.
Below is my fantasy baseball preview for the starting pitcher position. This is a mere supplement to the fantasy guide, which will have in-depth player capsules for each player ranked. The fantasy guide will be released on March 1. If you’re looking for player projections for the 2014 season, please go to the fantasy guides page.
This is the deepest position in fantasy, but it’s not as deep as you think. It’s important to acquire at least one tier one pitcher to act as the foundation of your pitching staff. With strikeout rates at all-time highs you need to roster at least two 200 strikeout pitchers (there were only 17 pitchers with 195-plus last year).
Tier 1
Clayton Kershaw was really good last year, but not good enough to warrant a top ten draft pick because he doesn’t produce overwhelming stats in all four categories. He was the best pitcher last year, but even so, his stats were not overwhelming. Felix Hernandez’s fastball velocity has been in decline for at least five years and he has been able to maintain success. I see no reason why he falters this year. David Price is staying in Tampa Bay, which improves his fantasy value because of the home ballpark and the quality of defense behind him. He changed his approach, specifically; he started to throw a lot of strikes (at Cliff Lee levels). In redraft leagues I’m not concerned about Chris Sale’s health for the season because of two words: Don Cooper. The White Sox revamped the offensive, which provides optimism he can have a winning record.
Tier 2
Everyone loves Stephen Strasburg, but he has never thrown more than 183 innings in a season and his strikeout rate was the lowest of career last year. The R.A. Dickey ranking probably stands out the most, but I believe injuries caused the velocity of the knuckleball to drop, but during the last two months of the season the velocity returned and he performed near the stats of 2012. Danny Salazar’s ranking may also look too high, but his strikeout rate was the second highest among starting pitchers last year. There are questions about his durability, but if you miss out on a high strikeout pitcher, he could easily provide 200-plus strikeouts. Justin Masterson finally figured how to get out lefties; he threw the slider more and increased his strikeout rate six percentage points. Kris Medlen doesn’t put up massive strikeout rates, but he doesn’t walk anyone and induces a lot of ground balls. Most people would not know he had a 3.11 ERA last year.
Tier 3
Yordano Ventura probably starts the year in the minors for the first month or so, but if the Royals have any chance of earning a playoff berth Ventura is going to have to be in the rotation (and not Bruce Chen). Greinke began spring training (in 2013) with elbow problems and proceeded to no longer throw his slider; that tells me something is wrong physically. I’m not owning him in any league. Jarrod Parker only struck out 16.4 percent of batters, which is far too low in an era where strikeout rates are the highest ever. Tim Lincecum made one big adjustment that has me very optimistic about 2014; he is longer throwing the fastball up in the zone. Before the 2013 season he started looking (last year) at his advanced statistics and realized throwing the fastball up in the zone was a bad thing. Last year was the lowest percentage of fastballs up in the zone. Everyone loves Doug Fister because he’s leaving behind the Tigers infield defense, but the Nationals defense is not a vast upgrade. In fact, I believe it’s a very slight upgrade. I’m also not bullish on Sonny Gray primarily due to he’s only a two-pitch pitcher who saw tremendous success because teams never saw him before. If the changeup takes a step forward he is a tier two pitcher.
Tier 4
The biggest reason why I have Matt Garza ranked so low is because of the injury risk and he has had an ERA above 3.81 in four out of the five seasons. I’m not buying Hyun-Jin Ryu because his stuff average and his performance decreased dramatically when teams saw him for the second, third and fourth time. I may be overly bullish on Ryan Vogelsong, but he was a top 25 pitcher from 2011-12 and still pitches in a great pitcher’s park. I used to be a big believer in Matt Moore, but he walks too many hitters and loses command from inning to inning which makes him extremely inconsistent. There’s a lot of hype surrounding Taijuan Walker, but he is far from a finished product. He still needs to dramatically refine the command of his changeup if he’s going to have sustained success. Clay Buchholz is really good, but can you get more than 130 innings? Bartolo Colon had a great 2013 season and his new team has some of the ingredients as his old team. For example, the ballpark is great for fly balls and the defense in the outfield will be really good. He will not win as many games, but he should still be good.
Tier 5
With Ubaldo Jimenez I’m not buying the last four months of the season compared to two-plus years of bad performance. Once Zack Wheeler stopped tipping his pitches his season turned a corner, but he still has to refine his command. He may be unfairly compared to Matt Harvey, but Wheeler will eventually be really good … most likely starting 2015. There are a lot of similarities between Martin Perez and Jarrod Parker in terms of their 2013 statistical performance, but Perez is going far later in drafts. I ranked Parker much higher because he plays in a better home ballpark, which makes him more streamable. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Perez outperforms Parker. Archie Bradley is considered to be the best pitcher in the minors and if the Diamondbacks are going to the playoffs Bradley will have to be in the rotation. He could be this year’s Gerrit Cole. Henderson Alvarez doesn’t miss a lot of bats, but he does induce a lot of ground balls and doesn’t walk people, which makes him a great streaming option. Marco Estrada is the same pitcher as A.J. Griffin with the only difference is Griffin plays in a great ballpark while Estrada plays in a bad one. Estrada is a great streaming option when he’s on the road.
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