Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Below is my fantasy baseball preview for the outfield position. This is a mere supplement to the fantasy guide, which will have in-depth player capsules for each player ranked. The fantasy guide will be released on March 1. If you’re looking for player projections for the 2014 season, please go to the fantasy guides page.

After the first 3-4 players the outfield position is full of question marks, which means this position has a lot of players with upside and a lot of players who will disappoint. If you’re playing with four-plus outfielders the outfielders you roster will determine whether you win or lose your league. Overall, I recommend rostering outfielders earlier rather than later in your drafts.

Tier 1

• Mike Trout
• Ryan Braun
• Andrew McCutchen
• Adam Jones
• Jacoby Ellsbury
• Carlos Gonzalez

When I look at Ryan Braun I’m not worried about any potential hangover effect after his suspension and I expect him to return to the 30-plus home run and 15-plus stolen base totals. I’m predicting 13 home runs for Jacoby Ellsbury, which could be overly optimistic considering his home run totals outside of the monster year, but I’m banking on him getting a few extra home runs in that ballpark. Jones is seen as the safe, consistent pick, but if the ground ball rate stays at 48 percent I wouldn’t be surprised if the power decreases. When Carlos Gonzalez went on the DL he was number one on ESPNs Player Rater. He is going to play a more taxing defensive position which isn’t a good thing if you’re banking on him staying healthy.

Tier 2

• Bryce Harper
• Carlos Gomez
• Matt Holliday
• Alex Rios
• Shin-Soo Choo
• Yasiel Puig
• Hunter Pence
• Jay Bruce
• Jayson Werth
• Justin Upton

I was bullish on Bryce Harper last year and I still am this year because his numbers before running into a wall were extremely good. Pence saved his fantasy season with a monster September. He’ll likely regress somewhat, but he’s a five category player that will not hurt you in any category. Which Alex Rios will we get this year? Are the career high stolen base totals repeatable? I believe so. I’ve never been a fan of Justin Upton from a fantasy perspective because he’s always been over drafted despite the statistical evidence. The big question with Jayson Werth is how many games will he miss? If he plays in 130-plus games I call that a win.

Tier 3

• Carlos Beltran
• Allen Craig
• Matt Kemp
• Jose Bautista
• Giancarlo Stanton
• Alex Gordon
• Melky Cabrera
• Mark Trumbo
• Jason Heyward
• Starling Marte
• Alejandro De Aza
• Coco Crisp
• Billy Hamilton
• Alfonso Soriano
• Brandon Moss
• Curtis Granderson
• Yoenis Cespedes
• Torii Hunter
• Josh Reddick
• Domonic Brown
• Angel Pagan
• Shane Victorino
• Wil Myers

Yoensis Cespeds’ lack of an approach of the plate limits his upside despite how well he performed in his rookie year. I may be too low on Giancarlo Stanton, but how confident are you he receives more than 500 at-bats in 2014? Angel Pagan missed a substantial amount of the 2013 season with a hamstring injury, but he’s stolen at 30 bases the previous three seasons (ok I cheated, he had 29 in 2012). Will Matt Kemp be ready on Opening Day? If so, can he play a full season? He is one of the players who will win you your league if he returns to form. Crisp’s had the lowest average home run distance of any player last year, which tells me the power will regress. Melky Cabrera played four months of the season with various leg injuries before they found the cause of the injury; a tumor was found on his spinal cord. He had successful surgery and should healthy in 2014. For most of last year Josh Reddick battled a wrist injury, which ultimately put him on the DL twice and required offseason surgery. I believe 2013 was a lost season for him and I’m expecting the power to come back.

Tier 4

• Michael Brantley
• Josh Hamilton
• Leonys Martin
• Nick Swisher
• Michael Cuddyer
• Corey Hart
• Norichika Aoki
• Christian Yelich
• Adam Eaton
• Josh Willingham
• Martin Prado
• Austin Jackson
• Ben Revere
• Brett Gardner
• Ben Zobrist
• Michael Bourn
• Oscar Taveras
• Avisail Garcia
• Desmond Jennings
• George Springer
• Colby Rasmus
• Will Venable

If George Springer were guaranteed to a roster spot on the major league club, he would be a top 20-25 outfielder because of the speed and power combination. If Corey Hart can play a full year he could hit 25-plus home runs. If Oscar Taveras began the year with a full time job he could be a top 20 outfielder. Colby Rasmus became more aggressive at the plate and hit for a ton of power. The problem is he struck out more and became a batting average risk. Michael Cuddyer’s great 2013 season was due to an unsustainable BABIP. I bet there’s one owner in every league that looks at his 2013 season and pays for last season’s stats. During the second half of the year Josh Hamilton was an above average outfielder (.287 batting average, .801 OPS and seven home runs). The only question is will that performance continue in 2014?

Tier 5

• Nick Markakis
• Michael Morse
• Marlon Byrd
• Craig Gentry
• Nate Schierholtz
• Junior Lake
• Dexter Fowler
• Carlos Quentin
• Denard Span
• Daniel Nava
• Chris Carter
• Chris Young
• Kole Calhoun
• Carl Crawford
• Peter Bourjos
• Jackie Bradley  Jr.
• Khris Davis
• Rajai Davis
• Gerardo Parra
• Michael Saunders
• Oswaldo Arcia
• Matt Joyce

Based on the A’s outfielders to stay on the field I wouldn’t be surprised if Craig Gentry gets 400 at-bats and steals 30 bases. Some fantasy analysts have Khris Davis in their top 20-25, which doesn’t make sense to me. His power numbers in the minors suggest his 2013 small sample will not repeat. Carl Crawford could be higher but how many at-bats will he get? Michael Morse’s biggest problem has been staying on the field, but when he plays he’s extremely good (.818 OPS the past four seasons with 77 home runs in 1,635 plate appearances).  Chris Young’s problems came when he altered his swing to cope with not playing every day. He’s going to play every day for the Mets and it’s possible he reverts back to the power and speed player. Oswaldo Arcia has above average raw power and is playing on a team that will allow him to get at-bats every day even when he runs into rough patches. However, he struggled immensely against non-fastballs, which means he is more likely to be a batting average risk.

Below is my fantasy baseball preview for the shortstop position. This is a mere supplement to the fantasy guide, which will have in-depth player capsules for each player ranked. The fantasy guide will be released on March 1. If you’re looking for player projections for the 2014 season, please go to the fantasy guides page.

Shortstop is filled with a lot of stolen bases, which means if you don’t get steals at this position you better acquire it at other positions. If you do get stolen bases at other positions you could get tremendous values with power-first players. In general this may be a position where it’s better to wait to get your shortstop because the players at the top all have major questions entering into 2014.

Tier 1

• Troy Tulowitzki
• Everth Cabrera
• Ian Desmond

Before Everth Cabrera was suspended he was the number three shortstop on ESPNs Player Rater. As of mid-February he’s going as the seventh shortstop, which I obviously think is too low. I do not believe he’s injury prone and if he plays a full season he could provide 50-plus stolen bases. Ian Demond looks like a slam dunk for 20/20, but there is risk with the batting average. For the past two seasons most of his batting average was fueled by swinging on 0-0 counts. Last year pitchers started making adjustments in those counts and he was a less effective pitcher.

Tier 2

• Starlin Castro
• Jose Reyes
• Hanley Ramirez
• Elvis Andrus

The biggest question with Jose Reyes is how many stolen bases will he steal? If he steals 35-plus bags he’s my number one shortstop. If he plays a full year he’s very likely to steal 30-plus, but I have questions he can stay on the field even though last year’s injury was fluky. I may be on an island here, but I believe Starlin Castro bounces back to the all-star level player he was before the 2013 season. Before the season the Cubs changed his approach at the plate. Specifically, they wanted him to walk more and get deeper into counts, but obviously that didn’t work. I expect him to go back to his old approach. I understand why some would consider Hanley Ramirez as a top ten overall pick, but it doesn’t make any sense to me. His 2013 numbers are clearly going to regress and the past two seasons he hasn’t played well. Elvis Andrus’ value comes from his potential stolen base totals and the fact he’ll have high run totals batting second in the lineup.

Tier 3

• Ben Zobrist
• Jed Lowrie
• Jean Segura
• J. J. Hardy
• Andrelton Simmons
• Xander Bogaerts
• Alexei Ramirez

I’m extremely down on Jean Segura because he fell off the face of the Earth the second half of the season. It’s possible he faded at the end of the year due to poor conditioning or learning the rigors of playing in the majors, but he’s being taken ahead of Jose Reyes and Ian Desmond, which tells me fantasy owners are drafting last year’s stats. Jed Lowrie’s batting average is likely to regress, but not as much as you think. He’s a fly ball/line drive hitter and makes a lot of solid contact, which will allow him to have a lot of doubles. Also, he’ll likely bat either second or third for the majority of the year. Ben Zobrist’s baseball card statistics were down but his contact rates were better last year. Barring a miracle resurgent year I see his home runs and stolen bases decreasing even more. If you get speed at other positions you’ll get a great opportunity to draft Hardy’s 20-plus power on the cheap. Contrary to Andrelton Simmons’ scouting reports he hit for power and didn’t steal very many bases. He’ll likely hit fewer home runs than last year, but I think he’ll steal 10-plus bases. Alexei Ramirez’s stolen bases depend if he’ll make enough contact to get on-base to steal bases again. In 2014 the batting average regresses and the stolen base totals decrease. Xander Bogaerts has the potential to hit 30-plus home runs when he reaches his offensive ceiling. That makes him extremely intriguing especially if you missed out on Hardy and are looking for power.

Tier 4

• Brad Miller
• Jonathan Villar
• Erick Aybar
• Asdrubal Cabrera
• Jordy Mercer
• Jhonny Peralta

Jonathan Villar could steal 40-plus bases, but his batting average could be in the .230s. His scouting report suggests he could also hit 6-plus home runs, which makes him more attractive than other speed-first players. Even though he’s still a work in progress Brad Miller flashed brilliance and performed well during the last two months of the season (.431 slugging). It’s possible Asdrubal Cabrera is done as an everyday player after this season, but he’ll still bat fifth or sixth, which means he’ll have RBI opportunities. Jhonny Peralta is a better player than Cabrera, but since Peralta will most likely bat seventh or eighth in the National League means he has less upside for runs and RBIs. No one is talking about Jordy Mercer as a solid fantasy option, but he performed last year, looks to have the everyday job and has 15/15 upside.

Tier 5

• Alcides Escobar
• Jimmy Rollins
• Yunel Escobar
• Zack Cozart
• Stephen Drew
• Derek Jeter
• Brandon Crawford

How many games does Derek Jeter play? Over-under on 85 games? I’m taking the under, which means not draftable in leagues besides AL-only.  Alcides Escobar has the raw speed to steal 30-plus stolen bases, but his biggest problem is getting to first base. Since he doesn’t walk his bat, which is below average, needs to improve if he’s going to get on-base enough to be fantasy relevant.

Below is my fantasy baseball preview for the third base position. This is a mere supplement to the fantasy guide, which will have in-depth player capsules for each player ranked. The fantasy guide will be released on March 1. If you’re looking for player projections for the 2014 season, please go to the fantasy guides page.

Third base is a very deep position, but other than the first tier of players, this position is full of question marks with wide ranging possibilities. Similar to first base, there isn’t a lot of stolen base potential, but there are a lot of middle tier players that will hit 18-plus home runs. However, unlike first base, the middle and late tiers have plenty of young players with the high upsides.

Tier 1

• Miguel Cabrera
• Adrian Beltre
• David Wright

Miguel Cabrera is either the first or second pick depending on your preference, but I do have some slight worries about his potential to play a full season even if he plays the majority of the year at first base. For three years in a row David Wright has outperformed Evan Longoria on ESPNs Player Rater, but Wright continues to get drafted after him, which doesn’t make any sense. Even though Adrian Beltre will be turning 35 in April it looks as though he shows no signs of slowing down.

Tier 2

• Josh Donaldson
• Evan Longoria
• Kyle Seager
• Matt Carpenter
• Ryan Zimmerman

When evaluating Josh Donaldson you either believe last year was real or a fluke. I believe it was real. His batting average will regress to the .280s and he’ll continue to bat second or third for an A’s offense that should be better than last year. Everyone loves Longoria, but I only see a three category player who doesn’t steal bases anymore and could be a batting average liability if he continues to strikeout 20 percent of the time. If Kyle Seager didn’t have a brutal second half of the year his final numbers would have been a lot better. He’s one of the rare players who can provide average to above average production in all five categories. At this point it’s almost a certainty Ryan Zimmerman will miss at least two weeks of the season with an injury, but when he plays he’s extremely effective.

Tier 3

• Pablo Sandoval
• Chase Headley
• Martin Prado
• Pedro Alvarez
• Aramis Ramirez
• Brett Lawrie

In the early preseason I wrote I wasn’t high on Brett Lawrie, but according to his ADPs he presents a good value as he’s being drafted as the 14^th third baseman in NFBC drafts. If he plays a full year he could be a 15/15 player with upside for 20/20. He may also have a higher likelihood of injury due to his levels of #WANT, but at that ADP he is worth the gamble. If anyone is going to take this year seriously it’s Pablo Sandoval because this is the last year of his deal. Headley is the Alex Gordon of third base as he doesn’t provide above average stats, but he provides average value in every category. The biggest question with Pedro Alvarez is what will his batting average be? Aramis Ramirez is in decline and I prefer taking younger players with higher upside. 

Tier 4

• Will Middlebrooks
• Todd Frazier
• Nick Castellanos
• Matt Dominguez
• Manny Machado
• Nolan Arenado

If Will Middlebrooks is given every day at-bats he could hit 30-plus home runs. However, he’s an extremely sneaky player and is prone to long cold streaks, which will make him a batting average risk. If Todd Frazier can become a .250 hitter he could be extremely valuable because of his 18-plus home runs and 4-9 stolen bases. Matt Dominguez has a real opportunity to become this year’s Josh Donaldson (in terms of real life value) because they play superb defense, were post-hype first round draft picks and have similar raw power. Manny Machado provides more real life value than fantasy value because he doesn’t hit for much power and he doesn’t steal bases. During the second half of the season his performance fell off dramatically. Nolan Arenado could be a sneaky sleeper not only because of the home ballpark, but because he makes a lot of contact. My biggest hesitation is how much hard contact will he make?

Tier 5

• David Freese
• Chris Johnson
• Mike Moustakas
• Matt Davidson
• Lonnie Chisenhall
• Mike Olt
• Trevor Plouffe

Some fantasy owners may see Chris Johnson’s extremely high BABIP and write off his 2013 season, but he has always been a high BABIP player. For example, before the 2013 season he had a career .347 BABIP. Matt Davidson is not a highly touted prospect which makes him an unsexy draft pick, but he has the raw power for 20 home runs and will get an opportunity to play every day. This is a make or break year for Mike Moustakas as Danny Valencia will most likely be his platoon partner against lefties.