Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Cobb missed nearly two months of the season after getting hit by a batted ball in the middle of June. Other than the removal of one of his ribs to clear a blood clot, Cobb has been relatively healthy. The biggest change in Cobb’s game was the elimination of the fastball in favor of increased usage of the sinker. The image, courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net, below shows the pitch the frequency of pitch type in his career.

Despite throwing the sinker more the ground ball rate actually decreased three percentage points to 56 percent (that’s still really high!). On surface he has a lot of skills fantasy owners should covet. He generates a lot of ground balls and had an above average strikeout rate (23.2 percent) last year. The strikeout rate increased nearly five percentage points compared to 2012. The increase came primarily against right handed hitters as the strikeout rate increased seven percentage points. The more refined command of the splitter/changeup was the biggest reason for this increase. In 2012 he missed up in the zone a lot with that pitch, but last year he kept the ball down. It sounds overly simplistic, but that change led to the swing and miss rate increasing three percentage points and the strikeout rate increasing 12 percentage points.

Despite those positive attributes in his game there are still some red flags. First he allows a lot of contact (91.8 percent career contact rate), which makes him vulnerable to the BABIP monster. To quote Chris Moran, “Of the 30 pitchers with the highest Zone-Contact rates since 2011, only six have an ERA- better than the major league average.” That line is a little misleading and he goes on to say pitchers like Adam Wainwright and Felix Hernandez have similar contact rates and they’re just fine.

What’s peculiar about Cobb’s stat line is he had a HR/FB rate of nearly 15 percent, a LOB% of 81.4 percent while maintaining a 2.76 ERA. He gave up 13 home runs last year and most, if not all, must have come with no one on-base. Also, another sign of good luck was his career best .279 BABIP, but don’t let that fool you into believing he was lucky. He was top ten among starters with at least 20 starts in ground ball rate; combine that with a 23 percent strikeout rate that looks legitimate, it’s no wonder why his BABIP and LOB rates were so low.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

A show of hands of who saw Carpenter putting up the season he did in 2013? I literally had no idea he had the ability to put up numbers like he did last year. In last year’s guide I had him as a fringe top 15 second base candidate who could score some runs, provide a little pop, but ultimately would regress because the 2012 BABIP was not repeatable. Not only did he repeat the BABIP, it actually increased (from .346 to .359). That begs the question, what will his batting average be in 2014? His contact rate increased nearly six percentage points and his line drive rate increased a little more than four percentage points, which indicates last year’s BABIP could be sustainable. However, he doesn’t benefit from plus speed, which means he’s going to have to find holes in the defense to earn hits. Therefore, the batting average should regress, but only to the .295-.305 range.

Last year his fantasy value was greatly inflated by the 126 runs scored and the 78 RBIs. Next year I believe both regress. If the batting average regresses his run scoring opportunities should decrease. Also, Matt Adams is more likely a downgrade compared to Carlos Beltran. In terms of RBIs, it’s extremely unlikely he bats .330 again with runners in scoring position. That said, the lower third of the lineup has upgraded offensively. For example, Pete Kozma and David Freese are both gone while Jhonny Peralta and Kolten Wong are in. Carpenter’s batting average with men in scoring position should regress, but his opportunities should improve. For example, he only ranked 18^th among second basemen in plate appearances among second basemen. All that said, I only expect him to drive in 60-65 RBIs next year. Since he doesn’t steal bases or hit for a lot power, his fantasy value is going to be derived from the batting average and his runs scored. I believe in Carpenter the player and if he falls to you at the right price you should buy.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

The biggest difference in Rizzo’s advanced peripherals was his BABIP; in 2012 it was .310 and last year it was .258. With a limited sample size in the majors it’s difficult to judge what his true BABIP should be. Based on his contact rates in the minors and in 2012, he profiles as someone who should have a normal BABIP in the .290-.300 range. If that is indeed true, then his .258 BABIP seems insanely low and should improve in 2014. He has struggled against lefties the past two seasons. For example, he has a slash line of .196/.269/.347. However, in his last two years in triple-a (in 184 plate appearances) he has a slash line of .309/.382/.558 against lefties. Obviously we’re working with a small sample size (both in the majors and minors) and the quality of pitching could be a question too, but at least he’s shown the ability to handle lefties, which provides optimism for 2014.

Let’s talk about the positives. His isolated power increased from .178 to .186, which was mainly due to hitting more doubles. Based on his scouting reports as prospect it’s possible more of those doubles turn into home runs because he has the raw power to hit 25-plus. His walk rate increased three percentage points, but what’s more impressive is the reduction in swing rate on pitches outside the strike zone (6.5 percentage points to 27.5 percent).

His down season could make him a draft day bargain. When young players struggle and there’s a small sample size I put more weight on the scouting reports when he was a prospect. Specifically, I look at the raw tools because a wise scout one said, “always bet on the tools.” I question if a bounce back is possible I always look at the raw tools because when in doubt always bet on tools. Rizzo has the tools to become an all-star type of player if everything rolls right. That’s enough for me.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.