Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Before the 2013 season, I wrote off his power potential because I thought the power wouldn’t translate at Petco Park. However, the opposite happened. Gyorko had the quietest 23 home runs last year (in only 125 games!). It’s possible his numbers could have been better if it wasn’t for a groin strain that made him miss a month of the season (mid-June to early July). The table shows his stats before and after the injury.

Last year he had a higher slugging percentage and higher HR/FB rates at home compared to on the road, which means he’s either capable of hitting more home runs or hitting less depending on what you expect his true power potential to be. I believe the road power increases and the home power decreases, which creates a wash. The power is legitimate. These are his home run totals the last three seasons (including the minors): 25, 30 and 23. His fly ball rate was 41.9 percent last year. There were 28 players (with at least 400 plate appearances) who had a fly ball rate greater or equal to 42 percent. 16 of them had at least 20 home runs and those 28 players averaged 22 home runs.

The only question is at what his batting average will be because that’s the key to his fantasy viability. If he hits less than .240 he’s barely usable because he’ll provide no speed. Last year Petco suppressed his batting average, but that could have been due to the low .252 BABIP. The table below shows his home-road splits last year. The pre and post injury statistics cloud what his true talent is, but he’ll likely be a .250-.260 hitter because of his home ballpark and high strikeout rate. In general I want my second baseman to provide a lot of stolen bases, but if you already have a speed-first player in the outfield such as Michael Bourn, then Gyorko is the perfect compliment.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

Cabrera had been dealing with various leg injuries for four months of the season, but it wasn’t until early September the reason for injures was identified. A MRI was performed and it “revealed a tumor that was located in the spinal cord of his L1, which is the first vertebrae of the lowest section of the spine.” As of now he appears to be healthy and is expected to make a full recovery before the start of spring training. Based on the linked article I’m willing to overlook last year’s stats because his numbers were uncharacteristically low. For example, he had a 3.3 percent HR/FB rate despite playing in a more hitter friendly ballpark. Other than the home runs his stats looked relatively the same. The contact rate, walk rate and strikeout rate all looked similar, which implies if the home run power was at his normal levels he would have had 9-10 home runs last year. I’m not worried about the decreased stolen base totals because the leg injuries heavily contributed to that. Obviously his 2012 season will likely be his best season ever, but if he’s healthy he can be a .290-plus hitter with 15/15 results with a ceiling for 20/20. Seriously, he could be a 20/20 player. He was two home runs shy of 20/20 in 2011 with the Royals and he was on pace for an 18/18 season in 2012 before being suspended for PEDs. Speaking of the suspension I don’t care about his previous drug because I haven’t found any concrete evidence they dramatically improve performance. When I compare my projections to trusted sources (Baseball HQ, Rotowire and Rotoworld) I’m going to own him in every league, which is fine with me. Cabrera doesn’t profile as an elite performer, but he provides a little bit of everything with a very good batting potential and he’s only 29 years old.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

Of all the players I’ve written about, no player screams regression more than Ramirez, but despite that he is being bandied about as a no doubt top ten fantasy player. I frankly do not get it. I believe the industry is inflating a small sample and is chasing last year’s statistics.  For example, will he have a .363 BABIP and 21.7% HR/FB rate again? Probably not. Before 2013 he had a career 13 percent HR/FB rate, which is far less than 2013s rate. Even his biggest fantasy proponents have to expect some decline next year. The question is, how much will he decline? Last year he had the highest line drive rate of his career (table below) and his ground ball rate was extremely low. The ground ball rate was at the same level as when he was .300-plus hitter.

From 2005 to 2010 his career BABIP was .347, but from 2011-12 his BABIP was .285, which creates doubt what his true BABIP is. Other than BABIP, his contact rates were the best of his career. That said, in 2011 he was beset by a myriad of injuries (foot, back and left shoulder surgery) that limited him to only 95 games. It’s impossible to know how much the injuries affected his play, but if you’re willing to discount 2011 as an injury riddled year then you’re only left with one “bad” year. If you decided to discount 2011, then it’s possible the 2012 season could be seen as a fluky poor year in which he was affected by the BABIP monster. I will admit a huge leap of faith is needed to come to that conclusion, but if you’re willing to take that leap you could have a top ten talent in the early middle rounds. However, considering his ADP is already of a top ten player leaves little room for error. He has to 25-plus home runs and 20 stolen bases to be worth that pick.  

Overall, this is a player who has only averaged 119 games the past four seasons (his 2013 thumb injury was a little fluky because he suffered it while diving for a baseball in the WBC), had an extremely high HR/FB rate that should regress especially since he plays in a pitcher’s park and is now entering his 30s. The upside of a.300 hitter with 20/20 production is still there, but his track record suggests he should be a late second, early third round pick instead of a no doubt top ten pick. Lastly, shortstop is deeper than you think. I have no problem waiting for Xander Bogaerts or Jed Lowrie much later in drafts.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.