Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

After a poor debut in 2012, Adams rebounded with a breakout season, albeit in a limited sample, in 2013. With Carlos Beltran leaving opens the door for Adams to have every day at-bats as Allen Craig will move to right field. The question is what will Adams do with a full season of at-bats? Craig has had problems staying healthy in his career and it’s no surprise he had the healthiest season of his career playing mostly at first base. There are two likely scenarios that are likely to play out: 1) the Cardinals allow Craig to play right field because they have Oscar Taveras waiting in the wings to set up when Craig hits the DL. 2) Adams is platooned at first with Craig. Specifically, Adams plays first against right handers while Craig plays right field. Against lefties Jon Jay plays right field and Craig plays first base.

The raw power is huge and the approach of the plate is conducive to sustain the contact necessary to not be a batting average sink (i.e. Ike Davis). That said, his aggressiveness can be exploited against good breaking stuff (.217 batting average against changeups, curveballs and sliders), which is true for most young hitters. Even though he has the raw power it’s unlikely to maintain the 23 percent HR/FB rate. Also, the .337 BABIP is likely to regress as the HR/FB regresses so the .284 batting average will likely to regress. Last year eight of 17 home runs came in September, which tells me his final home run numbers could be fluky. In September there are a lot of call ups and the competition gets diluted, which presents an opportunity to have inflated numbers at the end of the year. Therefore,  I only see Adams as a .265 hitter with about 25 home runs if he plays a full year, which puts him in a class with Kendrys Morales and Brandon Belt. Right he’s a super deep sleeper, but I think the hype train will come and by draft day, his increase his ADP to a point where he’ll no longer be a value.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

Altuve went seventh and eighth in ESPN and NFBC leagues respectively and if you drafted him (like I did) you made a slight profit. That said, his 2013 season was a slight disappointment considering he didn’t do one of the two things he was supposed to do, which is score runs. Before the 2013 season I assumed he was almost a lock to score 80-plus runs because I expected him to bat second in the lineup. Well, he did that, but the Astros lineup was extremely bad. There a couple of new faces, Dexter Fowler being the most prominent one, that should help improve the lineup, but overall it’s going to be another bad lineup. It’s possible George Springer could earn a job to begin the season or come up in May. That’s important to monitor because if he made the big league ball club he would be the Astros third or fourth best hitter. If Springer gets a lot of at-bats I’d feel better about projecting Altuve for 75-plus runs, but as of late January fantasy owners should expect 63-68.

What’s a little concerning is the stolen base success rate decreased slightly (from 75 percent to 73 percent). His ability to steal 30-plus bases is important because the majority of his fantasy value comes from stolen bases. Even if only steals 20 stolen bases he’ll provide a negative ROI based on where he’s going in drafts. That said, the Astros are expected to be bad again (they should be improved, though), it’s possible Astros manager, Bo Porter, will still allow him to try to steal bags because winning is not their top priority (at the major league level). Another concern is his isolated power nearly 30 points, which means he was making less hard contact. Last year he saw 15 percent more fastballs than previous years. Subsequently, his batting average dropped from .328 to .280 against fastballs. Barring a fluky BABIP year fantasy owners should expect a year similar to last year, but if the stolen base numbers decrease he’ll provide a huge loss in value because he doesn’t hit for a lower of power, he will not have a lot of RBIs due to poor lineup and there is not a lot of upside he can provide above average runs.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

One of the biggest hesitations I had about Cabrera before the 2013 season was would he get on base enough to steal the same number of bags as 2012. In 2012 he had an .324 OBP despite having a strikeout rate of nearly 25 percent and a .336 BABIP; not the type of profile you want to use an early middle pick on. Last year he reduced his strikeout rate nine percentage points, maintained the same BABIP and increased his OBP to .355. Other than the lowered strikeout rate, the contact rate improved six and a half percentage points while the swing and miss rate decreased nearly seven percentage points, which are both dramatic improvements. The major questions every fantasy player is asking is, will he play a full year and is he more than a one category player? The table shows how many games he has played (in the minors and majors) since 2008. If you average out those five seasons he has only played in 106 games. In 2010 he was only able to play in 76 games because of a nagging a right hamstring strain and in 2011 he was bothered by a separated shoulder and was limited to only 60 games. It would have been nice if he had an opportunity to play a full year last year, but he didn’t. I believe he can play in 140-plus games this season because he’s been healthy for the past two seasons and is still only 27 years old.

There’s talk in the fantasy community about whether or not he’s nothing more than a one category player. I’m not buying that assessment. If he played 140 games he would have 80 runs, which is not that bad considering the Padres ballpark. Also, Chase Headley was really bad and if he performed like he normally did Cabrera’s run totals could have been higher. Is the .283 batting average legimate? Based on the contact rates, his improved plate discipline and his speed it certainly makes sense, but he’s never hit for a high average the past four seasons prior to 2013. I’m projecting to have a .270 batting average with room for more. I love Cabrera this year entering drafts. Even though his stolen base totals the past two years have been suppressed by a lack of playing time (which wasn’t due to injury), if he played in 155 games last year he was on pace for 60-61 stolen bases, which would have easily been the most in the majors.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.