Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

2013 was an injury plagued season, going on the DL twice with injuries to his left knee. He basically missed the end of the year with knee surgery, which he suffered during a bench clearing brawl created by his teammate Carlos Gomez (on September 25, if you want to see the fight with your MLB.tv account).

Let’s get to actual analysis. He is expected to be ready for spring training and should bat in the middle of the Brewers order, probably between Ryan Braun and Gomez or Jonathan Lucroy, which will allow him an opportunity to increase his baseball card stats if he can stay healthy the entire year. In last year’s guide I said, “I have doubts whether he can stay healthy for the entire year; previous to 2012, he’s only averaged 126 games played the past four years.” Like I said last year, that’s a big “if”. From everything I’ve read suggests his left knee was bothering him all year and it’s difficult to estimate how much it affected him, but his ISO was the lowest since 2003 and he hit the most ground balls ever in his career (since 2002). The table below (from BrooksBaseball.net) shows the ISO broken out by pitch category.

Any time I see declines in contact rates or isolated powers from players in their mid-30s all I see are major red flags. In general, players in their mid-30s are well past their prime and have begun (or began) to lose a tick or two of bat speed, which means their upside is limited if even they’re fully healthy to begin the year. Depending where he falls in drafts, he could be value, but in general I’m avoiding him.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

I’m not going to discuss his PED suspension and how it possibly affected his performance in 2013 because I have not seen any evidence showing PEDs improve a player’s performance. The biggest stat that stood out was his career highs in batting average (.303) and BABIP (.374). A lot of the BABIP came from his performance against left handed pitching. From 2008-2012 he had a slash line of .235/.318/.412 against lefties, but last year it was .352/.404/.560.  Therefore, I expect the reverse platoon split to regress, which should give him a batting average in the .250-.260 range.

Prior to 2013, his suspension year, he has averaged 150 games played the past five seasons and appears to be safe to do so again. Since it’s very likely he’ll play 150-plus games he should be able to hit 11-15 home runs with room for more. He’s will most likely bat in the bottom third of the Cardinals lineup when everyone is healthy so his run and RBI totals will be suppressed. However, he is still going to play in one of the best offenses so I expect the RBI totals in the low 70s and run totals the mid-50s.

I’m not going to discuss his PED suspension and how it possibly affected his performance in 2013 because I have not seen any evidence showing PEDs improve a player’s performance. The biggest stat that stood out was his career highs in batting average (.303) and BABIP (.374). A lot of the BABIP came from his performance against left handed pitching. From 2008-2012 he had a slash line of .235/.318/.412 against lefties, but last year it was .352/.404/.560.  Therefore, I expect the reverse platoon split to regress, which should give him a batting average in the .250-.260 range.

Prior to 2013, his suspension year, he has averaged 150 games played the past five seasons and appears to be safe to do so again. Since it’s very likely he’ll play 150-plus games he should be able to hit 11-15 home runs with room for more. He’s will most likely bat in the bottom third of the Cardinals lineup when everyone is healthy so his run and RBI totals will be suppressed. However, he is still going to play in one of the best offenses so I expect the RBI totals in the low 70s and run totals the mid-50s.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

In most cases its cheap analysis to say (about any player), “this is a contract year and this offseason he’s going to motivate himself to get in the greatest shape of his life.” However, when it comes to Sandoval and his continuous lack of #want for not being in shape and being ready to play every day, this is especially important. There’s no doubt in my mind and Giants management, which is pure speculation on my part, his poor conditioning has contributed to his inability to maximize his true talent, which makes it more difficult to evaluate his career numbers. I’ve had the opportunity to meet Sandoval in a social setting and living in San Francisco affords me the opportunity to read about his shenanigans in the local media. This is a player who values partying more than playing the game, but with free agency looming I’m very confident this offseason he will get in the best shape of his life and put his best foot forward to having the best year he can possibly have.

Other than missing 14 games with a strained left foot Sandoval has healthy the whole year. In terms of statistical analysis, last year he had the lowest ISO of his career against fastballs (.136) and on fly balls (.327). The lack of hard contact led to the lowest batting average on fly balls in his career. The table breaks below down his performance on fly balls since 2009 (green cells) opposed to his overall numbers (blue cells).

You’ll notice in two of the five years he has isolated power greater than .500. In those two years is when he hit 20-plus home runs. It’s also no surprise he had his two best batting average seasons when he was making hard contact. I believe the lack of hard contact was primarily due to a lack of conditioning and I have to bet he’ll be in the best shape of his life (yes, another cliché) when he arrives at spring training. Therefore, I bet he hits 20-25 home runs with a .280-.290 batting average.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.