Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Let’s first begin with how Harper’s final statistics looked at the end the year. The batting average, OBP, slugging and isolated power were all higher than last year. He reduced his strikeout rate a little more than one percentage point while he increased his walk rate three percentage points. Lastly he achieved all of this at the age of 20, which is scary because even the highest the best prospects are likely only in double-a at that age.

Now, any fantasy discussion has to talk about that night he ran into the wall at Dodger Stadium on May 13. The table below breaks down his performance before and after the injury.

Based on the data it’s obvious the injury plagued him for the rest of the season. At the end of the season he had surgery on at the end of October. The early chatter in the fantasy community suggests he could be a top ten fantasy player because his upside is so high. For Harper to be a top ten player he needs to have to have elite level production in at least three, preferably four statistical categories. By now we all know his raw power is immense and is capable of hitting 40-plus. If he’s going to make strides in the batting average he needs to improve upon his .229/.312/.376 slash line against lefties, specifically stop rolling over on offspeed pitches. Last year his stolen base output decreased by 38 percent (from 18 to 11). It’s possible the left knee hindered his ability to steal even more bases. When healthy he is a 60 runner (on the 20-80 scouting scale), but he is unlikely to hold that speed as he ages (that’s not a concern for the next two, three years). Currently Harper has an ADP of 14, which seems about right considering his upside. Or the ADP could be too high considering he hasn’t actualized that upside into on the field results. I understand both sides of the argument, but are you taking Prince Fielder over Harper? Hanley Ramirez? Evan Longoria? Those three players are all being taken next to Harper and I rather take Harper.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

Villar’s skill set doesn’t offer a lot of real life upside, but he offers a ton of fantasy upside because of his plus-plus speed. After his call-up to the majors he had 18 stolen bases in 58 games. At that rate, if he played 145 games he would have had 45 stolen bases, which would have him tied for third most in the majors. Since he’s a plus-plus runner he should have a higher BABIP, which helps explain the .362 BABIP last year. However, with that really high BABIP he only had a .243 batting average, which means if the BABIP regresses how low will his batting average be?

The scouting reports suggest he’ll struggle against right handed pitchers due to the flat plane of his swing. Against righties he had a .374 BABIP compared to a .333 BABIP against lefties last year. I expect his batting average to regress against righties which means he’ll likely be a .230 hitter who could steal 40-plus bases. Even though he’s not a good hitter he’ll get every opportunity to play every day so the odds of him reaching 40-plus stolen base target is extremely possible. In dynasty formats be careful about keeping him because Carlos Correa, the number one pick in 2012s draft, could be in the majors as early as 2014. And with second and third already filled with solid players, Villar may end up as a bench only player in 2015.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

Rosario was only limited to 121 games last year because he missed three weeks with a calf strain in September. If you combine the injury concerns with playing the catcher position and the fact he’s a below average defender begs the question, “how much longer will (or can) he stay at the catcher position?” Since he only played four games at first base last year suggest the Rockies are still going to play him primarily at catcher. From a fantasy perspective the ideal situation is his workload mirrors what the Indians are doing with the Carlos Santana, spending half of the time at first base/DH.

It’s a force of habit to review the home-road splits of any Rockies player before I start their evaluation. The table below shows his home-road splits the past two seasons. It looks as though a lot of his numbers are benefiting from playing in Coors.

Other than his dramatic home-road splits, the statistic that jumped out to me was the decrease in HR/FB rate. For example, the HR/FB rate decreased eight percentage points, but there is hope for optimism. First, his road HR/FB rates were identical the past two years (19 percent). Last year his HR/FB rate at home was only 14.5 percent and in 2012 it was 28 percent. I believe he hits for more power at home next year, which means he should hit 25-plus home runs in 2014. It looks as though his .292 batting average was fueled by a .344 BABIP. You may be thinking the BABIP was derived from his home ballpark, but in fact it was inflated while on the road as he had a .360 BABIP. I bet his batting average regresses back to the .270ish range rather than the 290s. Also, do not overlook his stolen base potential as he has stolen four the past two seasons.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.