Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Where do we begin? Last year I said Castro was the safest shortstop available and I stood by those words, drafting him in three of four leagues. Not only did proclaim he was the safest shortstop I said something to the effect of, “Castro has the raw talent to be super star, but has yet to put it all together over a full season.” Any time we see a young player play really well it’s only natural to assume that the player is going to get even better because the body and mind will mature. However, it’s possible for young players in this current generation do not get dramatically better as they age. In fact in Jeff Zimmerman’s piece he theorizes (with data) that young players play the best when they first get to the majors, sustain that performance for a few years then begin their decline. If Zimmerman is correct is it possible we have already seen Castro’s ultimate ceiling? I’m not at that point yet, but it is something I’m strongly considering if he has another down year.

In terms of his 2013 season there were quite a few negative trends. For example, his strikeout rate increased four percentage points while walk rate decreased one percentage point. I’m not really concerned with the walk rate because he’s never been a patient hitter and besides, he has shown throughout his career he knows how to put barrel on the ball with being patient.

Before 2013 Castro has always been able to smash non-fastballs as he had a .289 batting average. However, last year he only hit .219 against non-fastballs. A lot of decrease in performance, in general, can be deduced from poor BABIPs, which implies he was unlucky and is likely to rebound because of the three plus years of solid output. For his career he only has a stolen base success rate of 65 percent, which is extremely low. He’s still a plus runner, but I have to believe the Cubs are going to strongly consider limiting his stolen base attempts moving forward. His 2013 was so bad that fantasy owners considering drafting him have to basically take a leap of faith because all the data suggests he was either unlucky or really bad; it depends how much you believe in 2013 versus the three years prior. I think Castro is a great buy low.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

I’ve never been a Jennings guy. He’s always been one of those players who are drafted highly because of his scouting report as a prospect and not because of the actual production he’s produced in the majors. For example in the last three seasons, he’s never had a batting average above .259; he’s never had more than 14 home runs; he’s never scored more than 85 runs. I’m not trying to say Jennings is a bad player because Rays ballpark has suppressed his stats. The table below is a breakdown of his career home-road splits.

His fantasy baseball ceiling is Alex Rios (a good Alex Rios) because he certainly has the raw speed to steal 40-plus and he has shown mid-teens power the past two years. However, the evidence is mounting against him. His ground ball rate increased six percentage points to 48.3 percent, which implies the 18-plus home run power is not in the cards. In terms of batting average the home ballpark is not helping, but he’s also hitting a lot of popups; to his credit he reduced that, going from 18 percent to 12 percent. Since he has plus speed one would expect his BABIP to be higher, but with striking out and popping up 20 and 12 percent of the time respectively will suffocate the batting average. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has .330 BABIP next year, but the smart money says no.

What hurts his value the most is the signing of David DeJesus, who will most likely assume leadoff duties against righties and push Jennings down to the bottom third of the lineup. Overall, we’re talking about a player who will have the likes of Yunel Escobar and Jose Molina / Ryan Hanigan hitting behind him so his runs scored will most likely in the upper 60s, not the mid-80s; his stolen base success rate plummeted to only 71 percent, which could limit his stolen base potential. He probably will not provide more than 16 home runs if he continues to hit the ball on the ground 48 percent of the time. The upside is there, but the evidence that is mounting against him says otherwise.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

I’ve never been a Stanton guy. He has only averaged 130 games played the last three seasons and 120 the last two seasons. In 2012 it was a knee. Last year it was a sore foot / ankle and hamstring. When compared to the injury history of a Jacoby Ellsbury I feel more confident about Ellsbury playing a full year because some of Ellsbury’s injuries were fluky in nature where Stanton’s injuries are from his body breaking down.

He’s only had a batting average above .262 once (in 2012, with an extremely high BABIP of .344). He has never had more than 87 RBIs. After all of that he is still drafted in the third, fourth round, which is too high for me. He only provides one elite level stats in one category (home runs). The batting average will likely be in the .250-.260 range, which is average. I don’t see the batting average improving as he still struggles with breaking pitches from right handers (.228/.299/.481 career slash line). The Marlins second best hitter is Christian Yelich who is also still raw and unproven. Even though he’ll bat in the middle of the order his RBI and run opportunities will be limited because he’ll have Garret Jones and Jarrod Saltalamacchia hitting behind him. Lastly, he doesn’t steal bases. His upside may be five to six supposing he’s healthy, which is a big if. Suppose he plays a full year, he’ll probably hit .255 with 40 home runs with 90 RBI, 70 runs and two steals. That doesn’t add up to a third round pick.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.