Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Before the 2013 season I didn’t like Marte (from a fantasy perspective) because the scouting reports didn’t suggest he was ready for a breakout (specifically, he had a lot of swing and miss in his game) and the high BABIP (.333) wasn’t likely to last with a ground ball rate that high (57 percent). Since he’s an above average runner he’s more likely to have a higher BABIP, but the propensity to strikeout a lot along with a high ground ball rate told me to be pessimistic. Also, higher BABIP players who hit a lot of ground balls tend to have a wider range of outcomes. which makes them more unpredictable.

In 2013 his ground ball rate dropped six percentage points to 50.8 percent, which was still really high. He was 19th in the majors among batters with at least 400 plate appearances. His contact rate was 75.4 percent, which ranks in the bottom 20 percent of the majors.  So basically he was the same player as the scouting report suggests; he will swing and miss a lot and hit a lot of ground balls.

Last year he had a .363 BABIP, which looks unsustainable even for a fast runner like Marte. Combine last year’s BABIP and his approach at the plate tells me his batting average is likely to regress, which lowers his fantasy value across the board. A major reason why he was a top 20 outfielder last year was due to the high stolen base totals. However, if the batting average drops so will the OBP, which could limit his stolen base potential. Another hindrance on his stolen base totals could be his low career stolen base success rate of 72.6 percent (in the majors). It’s also important to note he missed a little less than a month of the season with a hand injury (strained ligament) after he struck by a pitch so his 2013 stolen bases totals about have been 50-plus.

In terms of the power, he should be a safe bet for 10-15 with maybe room for more. Overall, expectations should be tempered as his batting average should regress to the .265-.275 range and I don’t see massive upside with the stolen bases. He’s still a top 20 outfielder, but not top ten.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

Gray is going to be one of the most hyped sleepers going into drafts, but I’m not buying the hype. First of all, his ultimate role is still in question. Is he a starter or a reliever? As an A’s fan I’ve seen Gray pitch a lot in the majors and triple-a and he currently doesn’t have the arsenal to throw 200-plus innings year over year. He’s a two-pitch pitcher which makes him more hittable the second time a team sees him. For example, look at the swings made in game two of the ALDS and compare the swings to game five. You’ll see they were not fooled as much and Gray’s pitches found more barrels. There’s a question about his size; standing at 5’11 he lacks the prototypical size and body to hold up to a starters workload; he receives a lot of comps to Tim Hudson because both of the similar stature and the immediate success they earned in the majors.

In terms of his 2013 performance you couldn’t ask for a better fantasy combination. He strikes out a lot of batters, generates a lot of ground balls, plays in one of the best pitcher’s ballparks and behind one of the best defenses in the majors that recently got better with the additions of Craig Gentry (who I believe will be more than a platoon hitter) and Nick Punto. That said, I’m still not sold. I bet Gray has a great first half and falls off afterward; that said if the changeup develops then he can be a monster. If the changeup doesn’t develop he will be a great set-up man.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

What happened to Cain last year? He had one of the weirdest years in recent memory. He pitched really well in most of the games he pitched; 20 of his 30 starts were quality starts, which tied him for 30th among all starting pitchers. However, despite pitching well in the majority of his starts, it seemed as though he was more susceptible to the blowup start (outings where a pitcher gives up five or more earned runs). In 266 career starts Cain has 42 blowup starts, which is a little less than 16 percent of his starts. Last year he had five blowup starts, which was a little less than 17 percent of his starts so he didn’t have a vastly larger number of blowup starts. The table below provides the percent of blowup starts as well as his ERA for all of his blowup starts. The data suggests there are two trends. First, the percentage of blowup starts are increasing and last year his blowup starts were extremely brutal in terms of ERA. The cause for the increase of blowup starts could be due to (or a mix of) bad luck, decreased quality of his stuff or the elbow fragments in his right elbow that could have caused discomfort.

It is also worth noting the first half and second half splits. The differences that jump out at me are the LOB and HR/FB, but it’s hard to pin all of his performance on those two stats alone; during the second half of the season he faced teams with an overall winning percentage of 48 percent, which also could have inflated his stats.

I wasn’t buying Cain in last year’s guide because I never like pitchers who continue to work up in the zone despite a velocity decline. Last year his velocity was the same as the past two seasons, but he still likes to throw the ball up in the zone; based on my calculations he threw it in that location 35 percent of the time, which is only four percentage points less than the 2008-09 seasons. I believe Cain got unlucky with the number of runs he allowed in his blowup starts and there should be some regression.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.