If you read The Importance of a First Round Pick you have seen that only half of the top-10 picks taken in the last four years have finished in the top 40 of ESPNs Player Rater. Of those 40, only ten players finished in the top ten. I’m a big believer you can’t win your league in the first three rounds, but you can lose it. Therefore, it’s important to get good value from your first three picks. In order to mitigate this it’s important to avoid players who are being overvalued and/or overhyped. Below are four players that are being drafted too high. Please note Chase Headley and Buster Posey would have made the list, but I’ve written player profiles for them already at here and here respectively. Lastly, all ADPs come from Mock Draft Central.

Andrew McCutchen
Bats: R | Age: 26 | Team: Pirates | Position: OF | ADP: 5.63

McCutchen finally had his break out season, hitting 31 HRs and putting up a slash line of .327/.400/.553 along with 20 SBs. What’s most impressive is he was able to put up these numbers in PNC Park, the hardest ballpark in the league for right handed power. However, there are some red flags. First, his batting average; last year he had a .327 batting average, which was aided with a .375 BABIP. Before last year his career batting average was .276. Second, most of his fantasy value came in the first half of the season. 58% of his home runs and 70% of his stolen bases came in the first of the season. Also, his slash line in the first half was .362/.414/.625 compared to .289/.385/.475 in the second half of the year. Third, his stolen bases have decreased year over year for the past three years, reaching a career low of 20 last year. He’s currently being drafted 5^th/6^th overall, which is too high. I bet at the end of the year he provides similar value to Adam Jones, whose going 15-16 picks later.

Jose Bautista
Bats: R | Age: 32 | Team: Blue Jays | Position: OF | ADP: 9.01

Bautista is going to be one of the most polarizing players going into drafts; he’s either going to win or cost fantasy players their championships based on his ADP. His 2012 season was cut short because he had surgery on a damaged tendon in his left wrist. A hitter’s hands and wrists are extremely important to hitting and hitting for power. Stephania Bell, a licenses physical therapist at ESPN, said the surgery reattached the soft tissue and not the tendon; therefore it was a minor wrist surgery. It’s easy to assume he will come back to the production we saw back in 2010 and 2011, but I’m extremely skeptical. His biggest fantasy asset is his power, if he doesn’t hit for power he’s a top 50 player and not a top-ten player. Also, he’s not going to help in the batting average department; in 2011 he batted .302, but that was BABIP driven. So far in spring training he’s 2 for 16 with both of those hits being home runs. However, those home runs came against Aaron Cook and Troy Patton.

Justin Upton
Bats: R | Age: 25 | Team: Braves| Position: OF | ADP: 11.35

Based on his 2011 season I thought Upton was on the precipices of becoming an MVP. But what happened instead is he took a huge step backwards, only hitting 17 home runs, 18 stolen bases and 67 RBI. His lack of power and offensive output was partly due to a thumb injury that became public only after the season ended. What also could have contributed to his poor year was he didn’t get along with the Diamondbacks coaching staff and upper management. The biggest hesitation I have about him is he’s never been an top-10 player before. Even during his best season (in 2011) he only finished 17^th on ESPNs Player Rater. Most scouts would agree he has tools to hit .300 with 30+ home runs and 30+ stolen bases, but he is moving from a great hitter’s park to a ballpark that is the eighth worst for right handed hitters. Some could argue that’s not a big deal because Atlanta’s park is a neutral ballpark, but check out his home-road splits for the past three seasons; it’s very clear to me he benefited from playing in Arizona’s ballpark.

Ian Kinsler
Bats: R | Age: 31 | Team: Rangers | Position: 2B | ADP: 38.45

Despite playing the most games he’s ever played in his career, he only finished 5^th on ESPNs Player Rater among second basemen. He has 30/30 upside and plays a relatively weak position so it’s natural for fantasy owners to take him 38^th/39^th overall, but there a lot of red flags. First, his home-road splits are skewed heavily towards playing in Arlington (table below). He continues to be a <.227 hitter on the road I don’t see him hitting .280 again. Second, Lance Berkman is replacing Josh Hamilton in the lineup. No matter how good Berkman is, he’s not going to provide the production Hamilton provided. Therefore, his run totals are likely to decrease, especially if his OBP is below .330 again. Kinsler is a player you draft and leave him in your lineup regardless of the matchup (this excludes H2H leagues). Kinsler has an extremely wide range of outcomes; he could go 30/30 again or put up an average 20/20 season. I prefer consistency with my four picks, but there are two scenarios, although unlikely, I envision myself drafting Kinsler: 1) If I draft three “safe” players with my first three picks or 2) I go with high upside, high risk players with my first three picks.