Like everything I post this is going to be another stream of consciousness. In the last two seasons I’ve won three out of four NFBC leagues. What all those teams have in common is my hitting was exceptional and my pitching was mediocre.
After reading books by Robert B. Cialdini, Richard Thaler and of course Daniel Kahneman I know one of the hardest things for humans to do is challenge our deeply held beliefs especially when we’ve been successful.
I’ve been above average at finding pitching off waivers, but the starting pitching I draft always struggles. In the past the most wins I would project is 16 with the majority of pitchers getting 12-14 wins. The reason why I didn’t have much of a difference (or spread) in wins is because wins are unpredictable. In the last two seasons Jacob deGrom has 21 wins while Marco Gonzales has 29. Assuming health, what are the odds Gonzales has more wins in 2020? With no offense to Gonzales, deGrom is a vastly superior pitcher so the smart money should be on deGrom.
The data I am going to site are pitchers who threw at least 150 innings per season during these seasons 2015-2019. I choose these years because this is the time frame when starters’ workloads have decreased substantially on a per start basis.
On average 77 pitchers will throw 150 innings. I currently have 134 pitchers projected to throw that many innings. That means only 57% of my projected pitchers will get to the innings threshold (wow!).
Of the 77 pitchers, roughly six will have 18 or more wins (table/image below).
Giving someone a projection of 18 wins gives that pitcher a big advantage against a pitcher who may only be projected for 14. However, if Gerrit Cole makes 32 starts he probably has the highest probability of being of those six pitchers with 18 wins.
I think the six best teams are (in no particular order): Braves, Dodgers, Twins, Yankees, Athletics and Reds (Even before we learned the Astros were cheating dochebags, I thought they took a big hit with the loss of Cole, Will Harris, Wade Miley, Colin McHugh and Robinson Chirinos.)
I don’t want this to happen but suppose Freedie Freeman or Matt Chapman miss most of the 2020 season. Both of their teams heavily rely on them and if they miss time their teams will probably not earn as many wins; in fact it would be a 5-10 game swing. So maybe I project 15 wins for Mike Soroka while only 12 for Chris Paddack. I think Paddack is the better pitcher and will provide better rate stats, but Soroka probably will earn more wins because the Braves should be better than the Padres.
The image below shows the average xFIP and win totals. The data suggests that in general better pitchers earn more wins, but at the individual level wins are still random.
deGrom is one of the four best pitchers in baseball. You could make the argument he’s the best entering 2020. Despite his talent, he still has to pitch for the Mets; behind that defense and with Wilson Ramos behind the plate. I find it difficult to project more than 14 wins. Odds are Cole, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander have more wins. In the past I would have projected these four pitchers to have between 15-16 wins each because I didn’t want wins to severe alter my rankings. I now realize this was most likely not optimal.
Lets look at two more pitchers: Jose Berrios and Noah Syndergaard. If you remove wins Syndergaard is the better pitcher, but when wins are added Berrios becomes more valuable. My thesis is the Twins could be the best team in the AL, which means if Berrios makes 31 starts it would be difficult for him not to win 14 games. In the past I would predict 13-14 wins for Berrios on the basis that skill is more predictive of wins.
Berrios is currently my 26th starting pitcher. Lowering his win projection from 15 to 14 drops him to 33rd. So, win totals have a pretty dramatic effect once you move past the top 7-8 pitchers (I feel like this is a duh moment).
Again I go back to the question. Should fantasy draft pitchers with better skills or pitchers with somewhat less skills but has a better opportunity for wins?
The Rays won 96 games and only one pitcher had more than 10 wins. The Braves won 97 games and only one pitcher had more than 14 wins. The Dodgers won 106 and Kershaw had 16 wins, Ryu and Buehler won 14.
Wins are difficult to predict. Pitchers on good teams have a higher probability for wins, but it is not guaranteed. Therefore, I believe the best way to project wins is to stay within a range of 10-16 wins with most in the 12-15 range.
