With the season upon us, fantasy drafts concluding and frankly not much else to write about I thought I could write about my NFBC 12-team mixed redraft league. If you never played in NFBC before the two major things you need to know is: A) all leagues are played for money and B) trading is not allowed.
It can be an incredibly self-indulgent to write about someone’s own draft, but my idea is I’ll go through why I drafted each player. Before I talk about who I drafted I want to briefly discuss what I did before the draft. Specifically, how I created and utilized a flow chart.
A flow chart maps out the players that will likely be available at each of my draft picks. The first thing I did was download the latest NFBC ADP data and then I combined that data with my dollar values for each player. This allows me to know how much more or less I like a player in comparison to the market (the fantasy community). For example, I have Victor Martinez as the 17th best hitter, but he has an average ADP of 55. Therefore even though I should draft him in the 2nd-3rd round means I could potentially wait until the 4th-5th round to draft him.
With the flow chart I identified players I like more than the market and where I could reasonably safely draft these players. These players were: Collin McHugh, Yan Gomes, Jason Kipnis, Jayson Werth, Pedro Alvarez, Brett Lawrie, Drew Hutchison, Derek Holland, Trevor Bauer, Josh Reddick and Alex Rodriguez.
That’s a long list of players, but having these players provided a guide for me in terms who draft and when. For example, I have McHugh as my 19th best pitcher and he had an ADP of 186. Therefore I can reasonably expect to get him the 14th round. If I drafted purely based on my values I would’ve drafted him in the 10th-11th round.
Once the flow chart was completed I also had various benchmarks I wanted my team to have. For example, I wanted a specific number of home runs, runs, strikeouts and etc. The benchmarks are the numbers I believe are necessary in order to finish third or fourth in each category. Below are my benchmarks:
- .270 AVG
- 1,040 R
- 990 RBI
- 263 HR
- 165 SB
- 3.43 ERA
- 1.205 WHIP
- 95 Saves
- 1,407 K
- 98-99 W
Time for the meat.
On March 29, 4:00 PM PST I had my draft and I had the tenth pick overall. The starting lineup consists of the standard infield, two catchers, MI, CI, five outfielders, one utility, nine pitchers and seven bench spots.
Adam Jones (OF, Bal) – I wrestled with this pick for an entire week. I created flow charts for Jose Altuve, Max Scherzer, Troy Tulowitzki and Josh Donaldson. The day of the draft I decided Jones was my man. On my board he was the 15th player overall, but I decided to take him because I wouldn’t to be safe and bank his production.
Michael Brantley (OF, Cle) – I had Brantley tenth overall on my board. You may be asking yourself, “Why would I draft Adam Jones ahead of Brantley if I rated Brantley higher?” I did that because of the flow chart. I felt very comfortable Brantley would fall to me in the second round, but I didn’t think Adam Jones would have fell to me in the second round. Overall, I believe in what Brantley did last year. Like Jones, he’s going to produce in every category and has a very good chance to have .300-plus batting average.
Victor Martinez (DH, Det) – like I mentioned earlier, Martinez was my 17th best player on my board. I know he is going to regress, but I don’t think it’s going to be that much. I still expect .300-plus batting average with 25 home runs and almost 100 RBIs. He’s coming off a February knee surgery, but I never changed my original projection for him because based on the reports I’ve read he’s going to be ready for Opening Day. I also took him in the third round because I didn’t think he would fall to me in the fifth round.
Brian Dozier (2B, Min) – Dozier was an easy choice. 20/20 player who could score 100-plus runs. I did not mind the batting average because I locked in my batting average with my first three picks.
Jason Kipnis (2B, Cle) – a year ago there was a debate between Kipnis and Robinson Cano who should be the number one second baseman. Last year Kipnis had a major oblique injury then had a hamstring injury at the end of the year. As of late March he said, “now, everything feels great.” I love buying low on players who have good track records in the past and who are coming off an injury plagued year. As of now he’s healthy, which means I expect the home runs to improve and the stolen bases to be 20-plus.
Greg Holland (P, KC) – Holland was the first closer on my board because of the strikeouts, his job status and he should be able to have 40-plus saves. According to my flow chart I was going to take Jonathan Lucroy so I adjusted on the fly and took Holland.
Yan Gomes (C, Cle) – I love Gomes. He’s going to repeat last year’s numbers and I think there’s room for the batting average to improve. According to his ADP I “reached” for Gomes, but he was the third catcher on my board and I wanted to get him because catcher is the only position where scarcity exists.
David Ortiz (DH, Bos) – After looking at my team at the end of the draft the Ortiz pick is my biggest regret. I debated between him and Jay Bruce. I love Bruce and I expect him to rebound, but I choose Ortiz because the power was similar, but he would provide a .290-plus batting average. The reason why I regret his pick is because my team lacked stolen bases and if I rostered Bruce I would’ve hit my stolen base target.
Jacob deGrom (P, NYM) – I’m 100% on board with deGrom and he could take a step forward.
Charlie Blackmon (OF, Col) – I’m not a fan of Blackmon, but I couldn’t believe he slipped this much in the draft. He’s going to leadoff and play half of his games in Coors.
Jayson Werth (OF, Was) – he’s going to begin the year on the DL, but I expect him to only miss 7-10 days. When healthy he’s going to hit for a high average and for some power. He’s also going to hit in the middle of one of the best lineups in the majors.
Glen Perkins (P, Min) – there was a closer run and I wanted to lock down saves. Perkins may not be a great reliever, but the closing job is his as long as he’s healthy.
Collin McHugh (P, Hou) – I’ve said all year McHugh is my pick to have a Corey Kluber type of breakout. I rated both deGrom and McHugh 18th and 19th (among all pitchers) respectively. My pitching staff is going to hinge upon both of these players living up to those rankings.
A.J. Pollock (OF, Ari) – if Pollock doesn’t break his hand his ADP increases by at least 3-4 rounds. If he plays a full year 10-plus home runs with 20-plus stolen bases and a .275-plus batting average.
Pedro Alvarez (3B, Pit) – I wrote about Pedro Alvarez here.
Erick Aybar (SS, LAA) – Aybar is always undervalued. He’s incredibly consistent. He won’t win you a league, but he’ll provide solid production in every category.
Drew Hutchison (P, Tor) – Hutchison takes a big forward in 2015 and has a very legitimate shot to have 200-plus strikeouts. Towards the end of the year the slider got much better as the year wore and by September he recorded strikeouts via the slider 60% of the time it was thrown.
Jose Quintana (P, ChW) – I have no idea how Quintana fell this much. The strikeout rate has increased year-over-year for three years while the walk rate has decreased during the same time span.
Brett Lawrie (3B, 2B, Oak) – I’m going to play Lawrie at my corner infield spot. Lawrie’s problem has never been talent, but staying on the field. Moving off the turf to grass should help him stay healthy. If he plays 140-plus games I see 20-plus home runs with 5-plus stolen bases. He also gives me Kipnis insurance in case Kipnis finds himself on the DL again.
Derek Holland (P, Tex) – Holland is two years removed from a 3.42 ERA and 189 strikeouts. He lost most of 2014 due to a freak knee injury, but when he came back in September the command improved and he was strike throwing machine.
Dioner Navarro (C, Tor) – Navarro is slated to be the DH, but I’m not entirely confident he’ll be the everyday DH the entire season. If he does I made a profit. Also, I adore catchers who don’t actually have to play the position.
Josh Reddick (OF, Oak) – Reddick is likely out for the first week or two, which is fine because I don’t need him in the lineup. When he’s healthy he’s going to bat in the middle of the order and could be a 20/10 player.
Kyle Hendricks (P, ChC) – I’m going to stream Hendricks all year. He’s a ground baller who throws a lot strikes and generates a lot of ground balls.
Trevor Bauer (P, Cle) – Bauer has somehow gotten forgotten. His raw stuff is in the top 20 among starting pitchers. His Achilles heel has been walks and poor command. He took a step forward with the command last year and in 22 innings this spring he’s only allowed one walk. I wouldn’t be surprised if he finished the year as a top 4- starting pitcher or if he loses his spot in the rotation at the end of April.
Alex Rodriguez (3B, NYY) – I wouldn’t be surprised if Rodriguez is batting fourth in the Yankee lineup after a couple of weeks. I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits 18 home runs with five stolen bases.
Everth Cabrera (SS, Bal) – With J.J. Hardy on the DL, Cabrera gets an opportunity to play everyday. If Jonathan Schoop struggles out of the gate Cabrera could be the everyday second baseman because the Orioles do not have a prototypical leadoff hitter. Cabrera fits the mold of a leadoff hitter and he’s two years removed from one of the best fantasy shortstops.
Mike Minor (P, Atl) – I still believe in Minor making a comeback. After two weeks or so we will know how he is progressing through his rehab. If he suffers a setback he’s the first player I’m dropping. If he’s healthy and makes 20 starts I’ll be delighted.
A.J. Burnett (P, Pit) – Burnett is back in Pittsburgh and is two years removed from a 290 strikeout, 3.30 ERA season. Russell Martin is gone, but Pittsburgh is still a great pitchers park and the Pirates are very progressive when it comes to defensive shifts.
Tim Hudson (P, SF) – Hudson is always underrated. He’s going to be a great streaming option throughout the year.
C.J. Wilson (P, LAA) – I get it; Wilson was terribly the last four months of last year, but for the first two months he was very good. On top of that he was very good the four years before 2014. From 2011 to June 2, 2014 (112 starts) he has a 3.34 ERA, 1.269 WHIP and a 21.2% strikeout rate. In his last 20 starts he has a 5.64 ERA and 1.707 WHIP. It’s very possible Wilson fixes the problems he had. If not, I cut him and move on.
