In my fantasy guide I wasn’t very high on Jose Abreu because “the scouting community is split over whether his power will translate against major league pitching. Some scouts consider his bat speed to be only average at best …” The source from the quote is from Ben Badler’s article right after Abreu signed in October.
We’re half way through spring training and talent evaluators have had an opportunity to get a better view of him and to see how he performs professional pitchers. One talent evaluator I respect very much is Keith Law and a couple of days ago he said, “I think they had good cause for such optimism.” Check out the article for the full write-up. I’m currently updating my projections and Law’s scouting report got me thinking how should I project him.
After the first 11-12 first baseman the next eight, nine are all about the same, which is the tier that contains Abreu. This tier of first basemen provide pretty safe numbers in that they will 18-23 home runs with a .260-275 batting average. If you’re team is going to do well you’re going to need to find the player that outperforms everyone in this tier.
Despite my projection for 27 home runs, Abreu is in this tier because I gave him a .240 batting average. In my rankings he’s currently right after Brandon Belt, Matt Adams and Nick Swisher. If I were drafting in a 10-team mixed draft I would take Abreu over all of them, but what about a 15-team mixed league? My initial response is to say no, but if Abreu hits 30-plus homes with a .250 batting average you basically have Mark Trumbo.
Albert Pujols and Abreu are the two first basemen who will have the biggest deviations from their draft value at the end of the year. They’ll either outperform or under perform; I do not see a lot of middle ground. The point I’m trying to make is how important it is to understand the player pool and to find the player’s you’re high and low on before your drafts so you do not have to make snap decisions in 60-90 seconds. (I gave Abreu a couple of extra home runs and he is now ahead of Adams and Swisher).
Lastly, I’m writing a daily column over at Baseball Professor where I recap the previous days fantasy news. So if you’re looking to read me more often then check them out.
