Before I evaluate Vogelsong’s performance in 2013 I want to discuss what led up to the 2013 season. He pitched 24 more innings in the postseason, bringing his total innings to 213, by far the most he’s thrown in his career. Also, he pitched in the World Baseball Classic. During the season he suffered a fluke injury where he broke his pinky finger on a bunt attempt and missed nearly three months of the season.
Much has been said about the decrease in fastball velocity, which was nearly down 2 mph last year, but I want to focus on his two-seam fastball, which had a 9.5 score in 2012, but had a -9.4 in 2013 (per FanGraphs). For a drop in effectiveness to be that dramatic there had to be something wrong besides a drop in velocity. I’ll also note the fastball score in 2012 (9.5) decreased from 16.3 in 2011 so there was a fairly substantial drop before. Given his age and the workload in the playoffs and before the season he could have been suffering from fatigue before the season began.
Most of the damage imposed on him came from right handed batters; from 2011-12 they hit .231 (with a .272 BABIP) against him, but last year they hit .327 (with a .348 BABIP). He was also unlucky when first pitching to batters. On 0-0 counts he had a .449 batting average against with .396 BABIP and 63 percent ground ball rate, which indicates he was extremely unlucky. Also, with men on base he had .357 batting average against with a .373 BABIP, which is another indicator he was unlucky last year. It’s possible he these numbers were inflated due to poor performance and pitch location, but with the majority of fantasy community quickly writing him off means he could be a great buy low candidate.
Some fantasy owners will simply write him off as a pitcher with limited upside because of the age, decline in velocity and overall mediocre stuff, but for two years he was a top 30 starting pitcher. If I told you could potentially acquire a top 30 starting pitcher for one dollar or in the late part of your draft you would jump at the opportunity. I’m going to target him in all my drafts because I believe he suffered from bad luck and I’m not convinced it’s impossible he cannot return to his former self. And if he does not revert back to form, then it’s an easy drop.
If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.
