If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.
Shelby Miller may have an average ERA by the year ended but his season was saved by the month of the September. The table below breaks down his 2014 ERA and WHIP by month.
| Splits | ERA | WHIP |
| April | 3.15 | 1.46 |
| May | 4.94 | 1.46 |
| June | 4.38 | 1.38 |
| July | 4.3 | 1.22 |
| August | 4.35 | 1.23 |
| September | 1.48 | 0.86 |
Overall, his 2014 season was the complete opposite of the year prior. He struck out far less batters and walked much more batters. The reason why he struggled so much last year was the cliché of bad command. I wrote about his command throughout the season last year (here and here). Despite the poor command this is someone worth taking a chance on in deeper formats because he has at one time had really good raw stuff.
In last year’s guide I thought he could sustain his 2013 success if the changeup took a step forward because I believe starting pitchers three quality pitches to be effective and I had a huge concern about his ability to get lefties out. However, last year he threw it less and opted to throw the cutter, which was a really good weapon against righties.
Last year his curveball was one of the worst in the majors. His whiff-per-swing rate with the pitch was the lowest among 74 qualifying righties. I’m not convinced the cutter is a good enough third pitch. Without a third pitch the curveball becomes less effective and if the curveball isn’t effective then the fastball will not be as effective. I think 2015 is going to be a developmental year. If he comes at a discount in a deeper format I’ll take a chance on him because I still believe in the mystique of the Braves, but I’m not going to target him in drafts.
My 2015 projection for Miller is 190 IP, 4.20 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 140 Ks and 10 wins.
