I wanted to discuss how one little adjustment to my projection system that has had a tremendous impact on my NFBC drafts.
In the past I would project players based on each player having a full season. For example, I would project Ryan Braun’s full season supposing he would play 150 games. That is a lot of games for Braun when you consider he hasn’t played in that many games since 2012.
The most likely scenario is he plays between 100-120 games. I currently project 550 at-bats. The odds of him reaching that is less than 20 percent, but it’s important for me to know what he will do when he’s healthy. If only projected 420 at-bats I will never draft him because he’ll be too far down in my projections because his numbers wil be compared to other players with projections for 530 at-bats.
This brings me to the main point. There a dozen or so hitters who won’t have jobs to begin the season but if an injury occurs that player will have fantasy relevance…most likely in slightly deeper formats.
For example, Michael A. Taylor. He’s currently the Nationals fourth outfielder. If Victor Robles, Adam Eaton and Juan Soto all stay healthy Taylor only gets 100-150 at-bats. However, Robles and Eaton are not bastions of health and either of them get hurt Taylor would be in-line for the majority of the playing time. Sure, Matt Adams will play every fourth day, but Taylor is the one who would benefit the most fantasy-wise. If Taylor played a full season I can see him hitting 10-15 home runs with 35 stolen bases. That would make him a borderline top-50 outfielder.
In the past I would project Taylor for 150 at-bats and I would never consider drafting him. Now, I project all hitters assuming they played every day. This process tells me which players I should draft at the end of the drafts because these players are lottery tickets. If I can draft a top 50-60 outfielder for the price of nothing I will gladly take that chance. Also, if you draft Eaton or Robles drafting Taylor gives you protection in the event either one gets hurt.
I used to be married to the players I drafted but I’ve learned that after the first month at least 5-7 players are no longer on my team so if I draft Taylor and after three weeks I want to pick up a pitcher I will do so. However, if I don’t need someone I will gladly hold my lottery ticket because you never know if the ticket is going to pay off.
Other names to look at (in no particular order):
- Matt Adams
- Hernan Perez
- Scott Kingery
- Jose Martinez
- Manuel Margot
- Franklin Barretto
- Alex Verdugo
- Ryan McMahon / Brendan Rogers
- Ian Happ
- Kyle Tucker
- Dustin Fowler
- Ryon Healey
- Willie Calhoun
