Matt Garza will begin the 2013 season on the disabled list with a strained left lat he suffered during a throwing session this past Saturday (3.2.13). He is expected to miss the first month of the season. Before the injury I had Garza ranked as the 44th starting pitcher. Now I’m going to have him in the high 60s or lower. I’ve always been a Garza guy because every year he was almost a lock to get 180+ strikeouts with a reasonable WHIP and ERA. However, there’s one big red flag. Since joining the Cubs in 2011 he started throwing his slider more than ever. In 2010 he used the slider 14.35% of the time, but since joining the Cubs he’s thrown it 24% of the time. I’m always worried about pitchers who rely on the slider because of the extra stress it puts on a pitchers arm, which makes them more susceptible to injury.
I’ve heard a lot of chatter about Martin Perez for the past three years amongst talent evaluators as being an impact prospect who could be a number two starter. On Sunday (3.3.13) Perez broke his left forearm when he was struck by a line drive. Early news out of Rangers camp is he will not be ready to pitch in the Majors until early May. Perez has the raw stuff to be an easy number three starter, but he hasn’t found a way to harness that stuff to be an effective pitcher. In his brief stint in the Majors last year he was hit around a ton, resulting in a 5.45 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. His biggest problem is walking too many hitters and falling behind a lot in counts, which tells me the problem is not with this stuff, but with the mental side of pitching. He’s an AL-only play at best, but could be a deep sleeper for the 2014 season.
Carl Crawford’s availably for the season opener is in doubt due to nerve irritation in his surgically repaired left elbow. I literally have no idea how to approach Crawford this season. His upside is enormous if he returns to the Crawford of old. At Mock Draft Central he’s going 41st outfielder (151st overall). In 10-team leagues I have no problem with Crawford going 41st because in order to win shallow leagues requires players to dramatically outperform their draft day value. In any league deeper than that, I’m staying away until I see him play on the field.
Cleveland Indians closer Chris Perez could be sidelined one month or more due to a strained shoulder. He should try to start throwing again in the next week so monitor this situation. If Perez were to miss the beginning of the season Vinnie Pestano, the better real life pitcher, would take over the closing duties.
Rafael Furcal is seeing Dr. James Andrews today about his bothersome right elbow. Furcal is trying to come back from a torn ligament he suffered last year. The Cardinals are saying it’s a long shot Furcal will be ready for the start of the season; this presumably makes Pete Kozma their starting shortstop. Kozma and Furcal are only NL-only plays at best; if Furcal is out for the entire season I highly doubt Kozma will be the starting shortstop the entire season. The Cardinals have a deep enough farm system they should be able to acquire a shortstop at the trade deadline. If Kozma were to play a full year he could be a 10/10 player with a .240 batting average.
David Ortiz is still having problems with his achilles tendon and may not be ready for opening day. More information should be available in the next few days so monitor this situation closely.
