If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

After his worst fantasy, Starlin Castro had a nice rebound season 2014. In five Major League seasons he’s had the following batting averages: .300, .30, .283, .245 and .292; of those five it’s easy to see which number does not belong.

He’s always been healthy, playing in 158-plus games from 2011-13. He missed 23 games last year because of an ankle sprain; it happened when he was sliding at home plate. That’s a fluky injury I’m baking on him playing at least 155 games next year. If he didn’t get hurt he easily would have had the most home runs in his career (in the 16-18 range). He’s only 24 years old (he turns 25 in late March) so it’s possible we continue to see an uptick in the power. Below are his average fly ball and home run distances for his career:

The table below shows his extra base hit percentage for his career:

To recap, he’s not hitting the ball much farther and he’s not hitting a lot more extra base hits. It’s very possible he arrives at Spring Training looking much bigger (i.e. good weight) and starts to make harder contact, but if a power surge is coming, I don’t see it in the data.

For two years he’s stolen less than ten bases; and in those two seasons the stolen base success rate has dropped too, which leads me to believe I cannot expect more than ten. Overall, Castro is what he is – he’s a .290-plus hitter with 14-18 home runs and a couple of stolen bases.

I’m projecting 650 ABs with a .291 AVG,  16 HRs, 5 SBs, 75 RBI and 70 R.