Before the 2013 season I didn’t like Marte (from a fantasy perspective) because the scouting reports didn’t suggest he was ready for a breakout (specifically, he had a lot of swing and miss in his game) and the high BABIP (.333) wasn’t likely to last with a ground ball rate that high (57 percent). Since he’s an above average runner he’s more likely to have a higher BABIP, but the propensity to strikeout a lot along with a high ground ball rate told me to be pessimistic. Also, higher BABIP players who hit a lot of ground balls tend to have a wider range of outcomes. which makes them more unpredictable.

In 2013 his ground ball rate dropped six percentage points to 50.8 percent, which was still really high. He was 19th in the majors among batters with at least 400 plate appearances. His contact rate was 75.4 percent, which ranks in the bottom 20 percent of the majors.  So basically he was the same player as the scouting report suggests; he will swing and miss a lot and hit a lot of ground balls.

Last year he had a .363 BABIP, which looks unsustainable even for a fast runner like Marte. Combine last year’s BABIP and his approach at the plate tells me his batting average is likely to regress, which lowers his fantasy value across the board. A major reason why he was a top 20 outfielder last year was due to the high stolen base totals. However, if the batting average drops so will the OBP, which could limit his stolen base potential. Another hindrance on his stolen base totals could be his low career stolen base success rate of 72.6 percent (in the majors). It’s also important to note he missed a little less than a month of the season with a hand injury (strained ligament) after he struck by a pitch so his 2013 stolen bases totals about have been 50-plus.

In terms of the power, he should be a safe bet for 10-15 with maybe room for more. Overall, expectations should be tempered as his batting average should regress to the .265-.275 range and I don’t see massive upside with the stolen bases. He’s still a top 20 outfielder, but not top ten.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.