Last night I participated in my first 12-team NFBC mock draft at Mock Draft Central; I’ve only done 10 and 15 team mocks so far. I purposely didn’t have a game plan entering the mock because I wanted to see my gut reaction to each pick and analyze afterwards. Below is my team:

I was very happy with my team, especially with my offense. I ended up taking four pitchers in my top 12, which was a huge mistake. Of the four pitchers, I regret taking Gio Gonzalez in the 6^th round because really good hitters such as Alex Gordon were still available. I took Brett Gardner, whose average ADP is 205, in the 13^th round (153^rd overall) because he could legitimately lead the league in stolen bases. Based on his average ADP it could be seen as though Gardner was an overdraft, but I disagree. If you read my fantasy guide you’ll see I believe in taking the players you want regardless of their ADP.

According to PECOTA, from Baseball Prospectus, I would have finished 4^th in hitting and 11^th in pitching. I don’t a lot of stock in the pitching totals because with so many auto-picks (only five people showed up) closers went very early in the draft; anyway, if I took an Alex Gordon I could have been in the top 3. Enough self-indulgence; I want to talk about starting pitching depth.

A common strategy most fantasy owners will employ on draft day is to wait for pitching. Since starting pitcher is the deepest position it’s logical to want fill that position after the more scarce positions (shortstop, second base) have been filled. The primary reason for waiting on pitching is pitchers have a higher likelihood of getting hurt despite even the best of track records; I’m looking at you Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum and Dan Haren. What often gets overlooked is since pitching is so deep every team is going to have good pitching staffs! Therefore, you’re going to need a great pitching staff in order to finish in the top three of each category.

A misconception I had was since starting pitchers only contribute to four out of five categories they’re less valuable. However, if a pitcher throws 200 innings, those innings will comprise 13.7% of the total output; a nine player pitching staff will throw roughly 1,458 innings. While a batter with only 630 plate appearances will comprise of 7.2% of the total plate appearances. Therefore, the value of a batter and pitcher is roughly the same. 

There are three basic strategies fantasy owners can employ on draft day:

1. Wait on pitching and draft hitters. This strategy will allow you to gain a superior advantage in every hitting category. If you choose this strategy you’re going to have to find sleepers throughout the waiver wire and stream pitchers every week. I love this strategy because I know I’m smarter than every player in my league and that I can outplay them. In that 12-team mock a lot of my favorites such as Jeremy Hellickson, Marco Estrada, James McDonald, Brandon McCarthy, and Lance Lynn were all available in the 21^st round or later.
2. Draft a fantasy ace. This is a high risk strategy because there are only five aces: Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Stasburg, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. This is high risk because you’ll likely have to use one of your top three picks in order to get them, but if you do you’ll have more flexibility throughout the rest of your draft. I recommend getting one “Tier 2” (check out the fantasy guide for the definition) starter in addition to the ace and then wait until the end of your draft to fill out the rest of your pitching staff. This strategy is more ideal for players drafting at the end of the first round because there are very few safe hitters; who do you trust more Troy Tulowitzki nor Clayton Kershaw?
3. Draft three Tier 2 pitchers. This will allow you to spread the risk over three pitchers, but if one of them gets hurt you’re going to be more vulnerable to better pitching staffs. This is my least favorite strategy because you’re setting yourself up for mediocrity; you won’t have an elite pitching staff or lineup; you’ll have to be extremely aggressive on the waiver wire for both hitters and pitchers all year.

There is no ideal strategy because if each is played correctly you’ll be able to win your league. I suggest doing a few mock drafts to get an idea how you want to approach your drafts. Just like any skill, it takes a lot of practice before you become good.