If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.
Based on the scouting reports I’ve read (here, here and here) Stephen Souza is going to be this year’s Kole Calhoun. First, they both dominated the minors when they were young for the level. Second, they were middling prospects before making it to the majors. It’s important to note that Souza didn’t even make Baseball America’s or Baseball Prospectus’ Top 10 lists for the Nationals before the 2014 season began. Third, the scouting reports are mixed on what he’ll do in the majors. I think the fact the Rays got him also enhances his perceived fantasy value because there’s still this narrative in the fantasy community that if the Rays did then it’s super smart. Of course, forget the fact they haven’t produced any quality Major Leaguers from any of their drafts since 2008.
Obviously the Rays must have liked Souza a lot if they were willing to trade Wil Myers for him. It’s also important the Rays organization has had more looks at Souza than the aforementioned the authors of the aforementioned scouting reports. His numbers in Triple-A last year were really good, but he was able to put up those numbers with a .398 BABIP. If a player in the majors had a .398 BABIP we would all be saying major regression is coming. I think he could be a 15/15 player but I don’t think the batting average is going to be really high (he still plays in an extreme pitcher’s park).
Some fantasy owners are already saying he’s a 20/20 candidate, which is crazy to me. Last year there were only five players who had 20/20 seasons … seriously, only five! For someone to expect a career “old” (he turns 26 at the end of April) minor leaguer to come to majors and put up those types of numbers is crazy to me.
His hype is also going to be fueled by the simple fact he has not failed yet in the majors. Last year every one loved Brad Miller (I also could have said Chris Owings) so much they were taking him over stable and unspectacular players like Neil Walker and Erik Aybar. Now no one is going to want to draft Miller because of how much he sucked last year. Sure, it’s possible he could put up a 20/20 season, but for me, if a player has that potential he would have made it to the majors three, four years ago.
