The Fantasy Journal: Rookie Starting Pitchers

With pitchers and catchers already in camp it’s getting closer to draft day for a lot of fantasy owners. Like last year pitching is the deepest category of any other position. With so many players available it can be hard to navigate through all the players. Below are four starting pitchers who could have the biggest fantasy impact. Please note the format for the “ADP” section reads as follows: ADP: positional draft position (overall draft position). For example, Tyler Skaggs is currently the 116th starting pitcher being taken and is going 327th overall. 

Tyler Skaggs
Throws: L | Age: 21 |Team: Diamondbacks | Position: SP | ADP: 116 (327)

Year

LVL

AGE

IP

W

SO

BB

ERA

WHIP

SO%

BB%

2011

AA

19

57.7

4

73

15

2.5

1.04

61.3%

12.6%

2012

AA

20

69.7

5

71

21

2.84

1.21

24.7%

7.3%

2012

AAA

20

52.7

4

45

16

2.91

1.23

21.2%

7.5%

2012

MLB

20

29.3

1

21

13

5.83

1.47

15.8%

9.8%

Unlike Wade Miley, Skaggs enters training camp as the Diamondbacks number one prospect (according to Baseball Prospectus and Keith Law) and therefore, comes with a lot of fantasy hype. Like Miley, Skaggs throws a ton of strikes and has a body to throw a lot of innings. Two years ago his fastball velocity ticked up; he’s now sitting in the low 90s and can touch 94 mph. Even though he sits in the low 90s, his delivery makes the batters feel like its two to three mph faster than what it really is. His curveball is his best secondary pitch. It’s a traditional 12-6 curveball that has excellent depth and can range between 74-78 mph. His changeup will flash plus (above average) with good fading action. If he can improve his command of either his fastball or if the changeup can become a true 60 pitch he could be a high end number three starter.

Chris Archer
Throws: R | Age: 24 | Team: Rays | Position: SP | ADP: 106 (295)

Year

LVL

AGE

IP

W

SO

BB

ERA

WHIP

SO%

BB%

2010

AA

21

70

8

67

39

1.8

1.24

20.4%

11.9%

2011

AA

22

134.3

8

118

80

4.42

1.61

19.3%

13.1%

2012

AAA

23

128

7

139

62

3.66

1.26

26.2%

11.7%

2012

MLB

23

29.3

1

36

13

4.6

1.23

29.5%

10.7%

In a brief stint in the majors Archer showed flashes of how good and how effectively wild he could be. He has plus fastball with plus-plus (well above average) velocity and movement with average command. He throws two sliders. The first slider is 86-87 that has excellent tilt and depth. He also throws an additional 81-82 slider that looks more like a curveball than a slider. His changeup can flash average at times. He has nothing left to prove in Triple-A so hopefully he begins the year in the majors. The problem with Archer has been command. There are times he has no command and times where he looks brilliant. There’s mixed reactions among scouts. Some believe he’ll be an elite bullpen arm while others see a number three starter. If he makes the starting rotation he’ll generate a lot of strikeouts, but there will be times he gets hit hard. If you draft him, just set it and forget it.

Dan Straily
Throws: R | Age: 24 | Team: Athletics | Position: SP | ADP: 108 (299)

Year

LVL

AGE

IP

W

SO

BB

ERA

WHIP

SO%

BB%

2011

A+

22

160.7

11

154

40

3.87

1.24

37.0%

9.6%

2012

AA

23

85.3

3

108

23

3.38

1.09

31.1%

6.6%

2012

AAA

23

66.7

6

82

19

2.03

0.88

32.2%

7.5%

2012

MLB

23

39.3

2

32

16

3.89

1.32

18.6%

9.3%

Straily, the minor league strikeout leader found his way to the A’s starting rotation in early August. He performed fairly well in seven starts posting a 3.89 ERA and striking out nearly 19% of hitters. His fastball sits between 91-93 mph and can touch 94. Both his slider and changeup are both plus pitches that can miss bats, but the difference between Straily and Archer and Skaggs is the quality of their pitches; Archer and Skaggs’ pitches can miss bats on just on the quality of the pitches while Straily relies on command to generate outs. If Straily doesn’t have command he can become very hittable.  I hope he makes the big league club to start the year because he’s a better pitcher than both A.J. Griffin and Tommy Milone, but unless there’s an injury, Straily will find himself in Triple-A. Also, it’s not a given Bartolo Colon will look good in Spring Training either.

Julio Teheran
Throws: R | Age: 22 | Team: Braves | Position: SP | ADP: ND (ND)

Year

LVL

AGE

IP

W

SO

BB

ERA

WHIP

SO%

BB%

2011

AAA

20

144.7

15

122

48

2.55

1.18

20.7%

8.1%

2011

MLB

20

19.7

1

10

8

5.03

1.47

11.5%

9.2%

2012

AAA

21

131

7

97

43

5.08

1.44

16.8%

7.5%

2012

MLB

21

6.3

0

5

1

5.68

0.95

20.8%

4.2%

Some fans could say Teheran’s 2012 season (in Triple-A) was a disappointment, but remember he was only 21, an extremely young age for the level. Most prospects his age are in A-ball at 21. His season may have been a disappointment, but maybe expectations were too high to begin with. He has a plus fastball that sits at 91-94 mph, touching 95. His changeup works between 79-82 mph with late movement. His curveball is the key for Teheran; last year he didn’t have great success commanding it. It looks as though he’ll start the year in the Braves rotation. If he does, there will be a lot of growing pains.

Matt Harvey
Throws: R | Age: 24 | Team: Mets | Position: SP | ADP: 53 (212)

Year

LVL

AGE

IP

W

SO

BB

ERA

WHIP

SO%

BB%

2011

A+

22

76

8

92

24

2.37

1.20

71.3%

18.6%

2011

AA

22

59.7

5

64

23

4.53

1.36

42.7%

15.3%

2012

AAA

23

110

7

112

48

3.68

1.32

23.7%

10.1%

2012

MLB

23

59.3

3

70

26

2.73

1.15

28.6%

10.6%

Matt Harvey is really good; so good he struck out nearly 29% of the batters he faced. He’s aggressive and attacks hitters with his plus-plus fastball that can sit 92-95 mph and top out at 98 mph if he needs it. His two-seam fastball is an extremely effective pitch as it has a lot of arm side movement. His slider, thrown 80-84 mph, is his next best pitch with good horizontal movement. He also has a cutter/slider that that can be extremely effective on both sides of the plate. There was a good amount of luck with a .262 BABIP and 81.3% LOB% last year. The counter argument is since he strikes out so many hitters the historical means do not apply. He can be pitch inefficient at times; preferring to throw a chase pitch out of the zone instead of going after hitters. However, he’s still young and has a lot to learn. 

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