Today I wantedto talk about the importance of a first round pick in fantasy baseball drafts. If you read my last post, you would have seen a first round pick has the potential to add five or more points to your team against replacement level player. Below are tables of the past four seasons. The tables on the left show the top ten players taken in ESPN drafts based on the average draft position and the number in the parenthesis represents where the player finished on that seasons ESPNs Player Rater. The right side is the opposite.
|
2009 Average Draft |
|
|
Top 10 ADP (Final Player Rater rank) |
Top 10 Player Rater (Preseason ADP) |
|
1. Hanley Ramirez (3) |
1. Albert Pujols (2) |
|
2. Albert Pujols (2) |
2. Zack Greinke (84) |
|
3. David Wright (64) |
3. Hanley Ramirez (1) |
|
4. Jose Reyes (594) |
4. Tim Lincecum (15) |
|
5. Miguel Cabrera (20) |
5. Carl Crawford (37) |
|
6. Ryan Braun (8) |
6. Jacoby Ellsbury (70) |
|
7. Johan Santana (93) |
7. Ryan Braun (8) |
|
8. Grady Sizemore (225) |
8. Javier Vazquez (147) |
|
9. Jimmy Rollins (87) |
9. Felix Hernandez (61) |
|
10. Mark Teixeira (29) |
10. Derek Jeter (53) |
|
2010 Average Draft |
|
|
Top 10 ADP (Final Player Rater rank) |
Top 10 Player Rater (Preseason ADP) |
|
1. Albert Pujols (3) |
1. Carlos Gonzalez (128) |
|
2. Hanley Ramirez (12) |
2. Carl Crawford (10) |
|
3. Alex Rodriguez (65) |
3. Albert Pujols (1) |
|
4. Ryan Braun (13) |
4. Joey Votto (38) |
|
5. Chase Utley (131) |
5. Miguel Cabrera (13) |
|
6. Prince Fielder (100) |
6. Josh Hamilton (86) |
|
7. Matt Kemp (83) |
7. Roy Halladay (13) |
|
8. Mark Teixeira (70) |
8. Adam Wainwright (45) |
|
9. Tim Lincecum (78) |
9. Jose Bautista (227) |
|
10. Carl Crawford (2) |
10. Felix Hernandez (20) |
|
2011 Average Draft |
|
|
Top 10 ADP (Final Player Rater rank) |
Top 10 Player Rater (Preseason ADP) |
|
1. Albert Pujols (15) |
1. Matt Kemp (25) |
|
2. Hanley Ramirez (247) |
2. Jacoby Ellsbury (52) |
|
3. Carl Crawford (191) |
3. Ryan Braun (7) |
|
4. Evan Longoria (108) |
4. Justin Verlander (38) |
|
5. Robinson Cano (18) |
5. Clayton Kershaw (39) |
|
6. Miguel Cabrera (7) |
6. Curtis Granderson (94) |
|
7. Ryan Braun (3) |
7. Miguel Cabrera (6) |
|
8. Roy Halladay (10) |
8. Adrian Gonzalez (12) |
|
9. Troy Tulowitzki (29) |
9. Jose Bautista (31) |
|
10. Joey Votto (19) |
10. Roy Halladay (8) |
|
20102 Average Draft |
|
|
Top 10 ADP (Final Player Rater rank) |
Top 10 Player Rater (Preseason ADP) |
|
1. Miguel Cabrera (3) |
1. Mike Trout (240) |
|
2. Albert Pujols (32) |
2. Ryan Braun (4) |
|
3. Matt Kemp (92) |
3. Miguel Cabrera (1) |
|
4. Ryan Braun (2) |
4. Andrew McCutchen (27) |
|
5. Jose Bautista (201) |
5. R.A. Dickey (245) |
|
6. Troy Tulowitzki (499) |
6. Josh Hamilton (34) |
|
7. Robinson Cano (17) |
7. Fernando Rodney (N/A) |
|
8. Jacoby Ellsbury (376) |
8. Justin Verlander (11) |
|
9. Adrian Gonzalez (71) |
9. Clayton Kershaw (17) |
|
10. Joey Votto (132) |
10. Craig Kimbrel (58) |
We have a sample of 40 players drafted in the first round and only ten of them (25%) finished the year in the top ten. Seven finished between 11-20, two finished between 21-30 and one finished 31-40 on ESPNs Player Rater. So only half of the players finished as a top-40 player! On the other side of the coin, there were 16 players who were drafted after the 40th pick who ended the year in the top ten on the Player Rater. There are two takeaways from this data: 1) you want to be extremely careful with your early picks and 2) draft high upside players after the 4th round. Tomorrow I’ll discuss the players to avoid in the first round.
