The line opened at -4 so the initial bets are on the Saints. Atlanta’s run defense looked really good last week against Tampa Bay, holding Doug Martin to 2.4 yards per carry. Matt Ryan was steady yet again; don’t let the stat line fool you; he benefited greatly from a 80 yard pass to Julio Jones.

I picked the Falcons but I don’t feel good about it. The Saints run defense, which has extremely poor, has improved the past three weeks. For some reason the Falcons are still enamored with Michael Turner and giving him 50% of the carries. If Jacquizz Rodgers was “the guy” I would give big advantage to the Falcons running game.  The Saints running game is a mess; Darren Sproles was used sparingly (could be due to not being 100% healthy); Chris Ivory looks like a better running back than Mark Ingram, but there’s a time share and neither one is startable from a fantasy perspective

The biggest reason why I like the Falcons is the lack of a pass rush from the Saints, which adds extra pressure on the back 7 to cover Atlanta’s potent receivers. I expect a bit of a shootout here: 35-28