I like Minnesota to cover tonight against the Buccaners (Bucs). About hour ago the line increased .5 points (from 5 to 5.5). It’s important to note the line opened at -6.5. One might say all of the Bucs loses were close (less than 7), but my retort is their only wins have been against the Carolina Panthers and Kansas City Chiefs, two of the worst six teams in the NFL.

The last two weeks Josh Freeman has seen a resurgence in terms of his play. It doesn’t hurt he played against two of worst four defenses in the league. The Vikings are the 9th best defense. I’m very skeptical about Freeman from a fantasy and a real life standpoint. Vincent Jackson’s fantasy value has been very reliant on long catches which I think can be mitigated by the Vikings because they’re 10th in the league with 3.9 yards per pass attempt. Jackson is mid-tier #2 wide receiver. Based on Mike Williams‘ average number of targets per game (18.34%) and averaging one red zone target per game, Williams is mid-tier #3 wide receiver.

Even though I do not like the matchup, Doug Martin is a top 15 running back. I expect a lot of runs to the left side, the strength of the offensive line right at Jared Allen. The Vikings secondary are pretty good tacklers so a home run play may be less likely, but the fact he will get there sheer volume of carries and I expect this game to be close makes him a top 15 running back.

The Bucs rush defense is the 3rd best while their pass defense is 323 yards per game. Even with those stats, if you have Adrian Peterson you’re playing him. However, the big opportunity is for Christian Ponder and Percy Harvin, Kyle Rudolph, and Michael Jenkins to all have big games. That’s right, I said Michael Jenkins. He’s the 3rd option on the team and is averaging 16% of the total targets on the team. Also, Aqib Talib will be all over Harvin so I expect a lot of room for everyone else. If you’re in a +12 team PPR league and need a bye week fill-in Jenkins can give you 6 catches for 80 yards. I’m in a 14 team league where we start 3 wide receivers and I’m starting him today.

Since I expect the Vikings to move the ball relatively easily I expect a big day from Blair Walsh. He’s currently tied for 4th as the highest scoring kicker this year and should be owned all leagues regardless of today’s great matchup.