Ok, I know what you’re thinking; that Travis Wood got lucky last year, which I agree looks to be correct when you only look at his 2013s numbers. However, in three of his last four seasons (in the majors) he has BABIPs less than .260 and HR/FB rates less than seven percent. That said, last year’s LOB% rate of 77.4 percent should regress as he has a 70 percent LOB% career rate. Despite being a fly ball pitcher he’s shown that he’s able to induce a lot of weak contact despite not having plus stuff, which consists of primarily two pitches: a fastball and cutter.

Wood began his career with the Reds, playing two seasons for them before being acquired by the Cubs. After doing a little digging I noticed his career stats are being held down due to playing Great American Ballpark (Cincinnati’s ballpark). The table below compares his performance at Great American Ballpark (GAB) versus everywhere else; small sample size caveat as he has only thrown 97 innings at GAB.

If you combine the advanced statistics with his performance away from GAB he becomes a sneaky draft day value because he will likely be overlooked because of his “lucky” 2013 season. His ERA will likely regress, but not as much as you think; probably to the 3.60-3.80 range. Also, he’ll most likely have a sub-1.20 WHIP with a reasonable strikeout rate on a team that has a revamped bullpen and a team that should be better in general, which equates to a higher likelihood earning wins.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.