Game(s) I Love:

Miami Dolphins. I think the Dolphins lose, but this is going to be a close game; for the last two Kapernick starts the offense has been extremely conservative, reminding me of an Alex Smith offense; I believe the 49ers have a safe offensive game plan and they allow their defense to smash the Dolphins offense; gut call here, but this is David Akers last game with the 49ers because he’s been bad this year and deserves to be replaced

Quick Hits:

Baltimore Ravens. I don’t have a strong feeling about this game; I think the media’s love for RG3 is clouding the fact that the Redskins defense is really bad, especially in the secondary; I was shocked to see the Redskins were actually favored in this game, but I’ve lost complete faith in the Ravens offensive play calling.

Kansas City Chiefs. The Browns should win this game, but I’m thinking by 3-5 points; I’m not a believer in Weeden and he’s probably the worst starting quarterback in the league; the Browns offense lacks the fire power to score enough points to win by a large margin.

San Diego Chargers. This is a pure gut call for me; the Steelers tend to play down/up to their opponents; the Steelers lost to the Raiders, Browns, and Titans this year; if you look at the tea leaves all the signs are pointing to the Steelers: Big Ben and Troy Polamalu are both coming back, the offensive line is getting better; Steelers running game is in the bottom third of the league (even if Dwyer gets all the reps)

Indianapolis Colts. Which team has the worst defense: Titans; which team has the worst offense: Titans; Andrew Luck or Jake Locker: Luck

New York Jets. I was shocked Rex Ryan is going to go with Mark Sanchez again, but Sanchez received a fairly big extension this past offseason so they’re committed to him at least for one more year; I have to believe Sanchez plays better…if he’s mediocre, the Jets win easily

Atlanta at Tampa Bay. I’m still not believer in Josh Freeman; the fact he’s behind a really good running back makes him look better than he really is; Matt Ryan has played poorly the past 4 weeks so Falcon fans should be a little worried;

Chicago Bears. The Bears are in a downward spiral, but Christian Ponder has regressed the most of any quarterback all year; he looks totally overwhelmed, which is strange because Adrian Peterson is running the ball so effectively; no Percy Harvin which means it will be a long day for Ponder and the offense

Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are the superior offense, especially if Michael Turner doesn’t play; the Panthers have zero running game which puts too much pressure on Cam Newton; I think the Falcons win pretty hanidly.

Tampa Bay Bucs. The best thing going for the Eagles is their rejuvenated, but now they play against the best run defense in the league; Nick Foles is not ready to play right now; Doug Martin has a big day and runs all over the Eagles defense which has been awful the last three weeks.

Buffalo Bills. This a matchup of two equal teams; the Bills defensive line is looking how we thought they would look in the pre-season; the Rams defense has a lot of up and coming defensive talent; if this game were played on a neutral field I would go with the Rams; the Rams are a young team and I don’t know if they know how to win a game on the East Coast right now.

Dallas Cowboys. Like the Bills/Rams game this is a game of two equally matched teams; when there are two equally matched teams I always take the points as it provides a perceived competitive advantage; Demarco Murray was limited in practice today (Friday) so I reserve the right to change my pick; if Murray doesn’t play I like the Bengals

New York Giants. This game gave me the most pause; I literally went back and forth several times before I picked the Giants; it looks like Eli Manning is back; Hakeem Nicks looks like he won’t play which significantly lowers their chances of winning; Giants last played on Monday and the Saints last played last Thursday so there’s a pretty big advantage.

Arizona Cardinals. I think the Seahwaks win, but this game is a slug fest; two of the top five defenses will be on display here; John Skeleton will be back as the starting quarterback which is a substantial upgrade over Ryan Lindley; Russell Wilson has been playing great the last two weeks, but he may be without Sydney Rice which will make it harder for Wilson to move the ball

Detroit Lions. The Lions probably have suffered the most heart breaking losses this year; there are two ways to look at that, either they choke when the games are close or they’re a young team that “hasn’t learned how to win yet”; I prefer to think of the latter; the Packers offense looked a lot better, giving Aaron Rodgers time to throw the ball, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lions defensive line generates a lot of pressure.

New England Patriots. Because of a lot of injuries this isn’t the dominant defense we saw at the beginning of the year; the secondary is thin; they can’t get any pressure on the quarterback from the front seven; I think the Patriots spread out the Texans and throw the ball all day.