Before I begin to look at the A’s offseason, it’s important to talk about the budget. The graph below shows the A’s payroll since 2003 (green line) and a trend line (gray line). The A’s had the fourth lowest budget in the majors with $61,964,500 (source: BaseballProspectus.com), which about the average payroll the past 11 seasons. I’m not going to speculate if their budget will increase or decrease, but I will say their budget increased 17 percent from 2012 to 2013 so it’s possible their budget increases even more in 2014. Supposing their budget remains the same, there will not be a lot of payroll flexibility. Even though some high priced talent will be gone: Chris Young, Grant Balfour and Bartolo Colon, existing players are going to get pay bumps because they’re entering their arbitration years and / or will have their options picked up (Coco Crisp and Brett Anderson).
Based on my metrics the A’s have a little more than five million dollars to play with, which is insanely low (the end of the article has a breakdown of the salaries of the players [for players entering their arbitration years I estimated their salaries]). It’s highly unlikely they go into the offseason with that much wiggle room, which means they will either receive a larger budget or they will jettison high salary players. I believe both are likely to happen. Rumors have already circulated the Blue Jays are interested in Brett Anderson. Whatever happens this offseason, I’m eagerly waiting what the A’s are going to do because there are endless possibilities. For more clarity on those possibilities, feel free to checkout my position-by-position breakdown below.
Position-by-position breakdown
Catcher: Kurt Suzuki is gone, but do not worry he will find another job. Derek Norris will be back as a pseudo backup. John Jaso, if he recovers from post-concussion symptoms, will be the primary catcher. Stephen Vogt, if everyone is healthy will begin the year in Sacramento (triple-a).
First base: Nate Frieman will likely platoon with Brandon Moss again. Daric Barton will either be back in Sacramento or will be playing for another team’s minor league system; I wouldn’t be surprised if Barton is the opening day first baseman because this organization has a special place in their hearts for him.
Second base: I completely wrote off Eric Sogard as nothing more than a stop gap for Grant Green when he made the opening day roster, but he impressed me with his superb defense. Sogard’s upside is a second division starter, who should be starting on a bad team, but on the A’s, he should be a utility player. Quick question, how old is Jemile Weeks? 26. In fact he’ll be 27 in January. The A’s have given up on Weeks and something will have gone horribly wrong if the plays for them in any month besides September. Scott Sizemore missed most of the 2013 after re-tearing his surgically repaired ACL. Maybe he receives a one year minor league deal, but the ship may have sailed for Sizemore.
Shortstop: Jed Lowrie will be back, but at what position? Anyone who watched more than ten games knows Lowrie is a below average defensive shortstop. Ideally he should be playing second base and hopefully he should accept the move if asked to do so. There’s been a lot of internet chatter about how good Addison Russell has looked in the AFL and how it’s not insane that he could be in the majors in July / August. I was fortunate to see Russell bat against Santiago Casilla, who was rehabbing and he barreled up a 95 mph fastball to left center. Ideally the A’s can find a solid defensive option to hold the fort before Russell comes; options include Clint Barmes (he would be a great fit) and Brendan Ryan. Lastly, it looks as though the Hiroyuki Nakajima signing is a sunk cost.
Third base: Josh Donaldson will be back at the hot corner again. If Alberto Callaspo remains on the team, he’ll most likely be a platoon player with Sogard and will spell Donaldson. However, I bet Callaspo is traded this offseason, especially with a weak free agent third base market and his salary is too high ($4.5M) for a platoon player.
Outfield: Yoensis Cespedes will be back again in left field. Josh Reddick had surgery on his aligning wrist and is expected to be 100 percent for the start of spring training. Billy Beane has already said Coco Crisp’s $11 million dollar option will be picked up so it looks as though the outfield will remain in-tact. Seth Smith is likely to be back, primarily at DH. The biggest question is the prospect Michael Choice. From everything I’ve read suggests he’s ready to play in the majors right now, but will most likely receive a call-up in late June to avoid being a Super Two player. Supposing Choice makes the opening day roster, there’s no reason to have a player like Smith because if Choice is in the majors, he’s going to play every day and should not be platooned.
Starting pitchers: Looks like the entire rotation will be back except for Bartolo Colon. However, Sonny Gray will take Colon’s spot in the rotation. A lot of fans are still dazzled by Gray’s game twos start in the ALDS, but he’s still a two-pitch pitcher and still needs to refine his changeup to have sustained success. It’s very interesting what the A’s do with Brett Anderson. Will be in the rotation or the bullpen next year? He has a number two starter ceiling, but I’m not believing the dream anymore. If Anderson is in the bullpen the rotation will consist of: Jarrod Parker, A.J. Griffin, Gray, Dan Straily and Tom Milone. Ideally, they should sign another starter for more organizational depth.
Bullpen: With Grant Balfour likely gone, it looks as though Sean Doolittle will take over closing duties. If Doolittle becomes the closer, Ryan Cook will remain as the eighth inning option and Dan Otero becoming the seventh inning option. However, that bullpen will not strike fear for opposing managers, which is why they will add 1-2 bullpen arms with one of them being a high risk, high upside player on a one year deal and inserting them into the closer’s role. Examples of players like this are Ryan Madson, Joba Chamberlain, Kyle Farnsworth or Joel Hanrahan. The other relievers, Jerry Blevins, Jesse Chavez and others are low leverage relieves that will not have a major impact on the A’s season if the aforementioned relievers do not miss significant amount of time.
