If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.
After a breakout 2013 season where Wilin Rosario hit .292 with 21 home runs, fantasy owners had high hopes entering the 2014 season (including myself). Unfortunately, he struggled for the first two months of the season before ultimately finding his way.
During the first two months of the year he had a .225/.261/.395 slash line with a .240 BABIP. In the last four months of the season he had a .289/.328/.446 slash line with a .322 BABIP.
For his career he’s always been a better at home (.305/.346/.540) compared to the road (.243/.267/.422). However, those away numbers were dragged down by last season where he hit .186 with a .209 BABIP.
One of the biggest criticism’s about Rosario is he’s a free swinger and doesn’t take a walk. Some fantasy owners may believe his free swinger tendancies created his low BABIP, but that’s not the case. Just because a batter doesn’t walk doesn’t mean they can’t hit. During Ichiro’s prime he never walked and he consistently had 200 hits. Rosario dramatically improved his approach at the plate as the strike out rate decreased six percentage points while the contact rate increased two percentage points.
So far we know Rosario had:
- An incredibly low BABIP on the road
- After a low BABIP the months of the season he provided numbers similar to 2013
- Hisa pproach at the plate improved
Even though he provided a higher batting average the last four months of the season he didn’t provide a lot of power. Perhaps injuries sapped his power?
In early May he was placed on the DL with a viral infection and only missed the minimum 15 days. In late August he was put on the DL with inflammation in his left wrist and again, only missed the minimum amount of time.
Any time a hitter has a wrist injury my first inclination is this bothered him all year and sapped his power. However, if that’s true then why was he only on the DL for 15 days? If it was more severe wouldn’t his DL stint been longer? As a fantasy community we may have to wait for more information to come out before we have a better idea how much this affected his power.
For his career, before the 2014 season, he had a career 20.3% HR/FB rate. That number may look high, but it wasn’t a result of Coors Field as he has a 19.7% HR/FB rate on the road. Last year he only had a 12% HR/FB rate, which indicates he should positively regress in 2015.
What happened to Rosario in 2014 was a combination of bad luck and injuries. I expect the batting average to bounce back in 2015, but I don’t see him coming close to the 28 home runs he hit in 2012 again. I would expect 18-22 with upside for more.
My projection is 420 ABs, 18 HRs, 70 RBI, 63 R and 1 SB.
