If you read my fantasy guide you’ll notice, because of time limitations, I didn’t provide any evaluations of relievers/closers. I would like to add an addendum to the Fantasy Guide by covering a few relievers/closers in the coming days. I don’t have time to evaluate every pitcher, but I want to focus pitchers with varying opinions in regards to their 2015 fantasy value. The first player I want to discuss is Zach Britton.

Last year Britton seemingly came out of nowhere, saved 37 games and was the third best reliever according to ESPNs Player Rater. He’s currently being drafted as the 15^th reliever at ESPN, which, on the surface, is extremely low considering how well performed last year. The primary reason for the low ADP is the fantasy community does not believe he can repeat his 2014 season. Is the fantasy community undervaluing Britton?

When first evaluating any pitcher I want to review their lefty-righty splits to see if he doesn’t have any platoon splits. The table below shows his splits from 2011-2013. In 2011 he was starter and made 28 starts. After that season he became a reliever.

When looking at the table he struggled against righties and lefties, but he was able to miss more bats against lefties, which is understandable because he’s left handed. As a reliever (from 2012-13) he had a .789 OPS. To put that number into perspective that was the fourth highest OPS allowed among relievers with at least 100 innings pitched during the same time frame. Bottom line: he was a bad reliever before 2014.

The fact he was able to be so dominant statistically is a real head scratcher. When looking at his 2014 season it’s hard to overlook the BABIP. Last year it was .215, which was 100 points less than his career prior. What also happened was he generated ground balls at 75% clip, which is extremely high. I prefer pitchers with higher ground ball rates because that indicates he’s inducing more weak contact. Also, considering how good the Orioles infield defense, especially on the left side of the diamond, it’s not surprising the BABIP was so low.

Obviously the BABIP is going to regress, but the big question is how much? The first question I have is can he continue to have a 75% ground ball rate?

Last year he scrapped the four-seam fastball and changeup, becoming a two pitch pitcher (sinker and slider/curveball). Image below from BrooksBaseball.net.

Since he threw the sinker so much I assumed he threw a higher percentage of pitches down in the zone, but that’s not what the numbers say. The table below shows the percentage of pitches thrown: down, up and middle of the strike zone.

The biggest reason why I’m not buying his 2014 numbers was he was extremely lucky when balls were hit on the ground. The table below shows his ground ball performance.

I have my doubts if he can maintain the last year’s ground ball rate, but even if he does he’s not going to have a .140 BABIP again. I expect the ERA to climb to the 3.20-3.50 range next year, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to lose the closer job. The Orioles bullpen doesn’t have a clear reliever overlooking Britton’s shoulder and Buck Showalter has had longer leashes for his closers in the past. Britton would have to struggle terribly to lose the closers role. According to my metrics he’s the 16th best reliever, which means he’s being properly valued by the fantasy community.